Influences And The Mechanism Research Of International Oil Price Fluctuations On Chinese Economy

Energy and economic development has always been inseparable, in the use of primary energy, and with the use of the oil is the most widely, the greatest influence on the economy. So changes in the international oil price will have a huge impact on the economy as a whole system. Study the international oil price fluctuation trend and its influence on China’s economy, clear the international oil price on China’s economy conduction path, the current is in the midst of the "shifting period" of China’s economy, has the extremely important practical significance.The effect of international oil price on China’s economy and the transmission mechanism is a complex system. Following questions- research review- the theoretical foundation- the empirical summary conclusion- put forward the proposal writing process, gradually in-depth analysis. In international oil prices and China’s macro economy as the research object, according to the theory of supply shocks,market allocation theory, income transfers and monetary channel theory as the theoretical basis, according to the authoritative database, a collection of international oil prices, domestic oil prices, China’s GDP, the consumer price index and producer price index, China import and export trade, urban registered unemployment rate in calendar year data, such as vector autoregressive model is established and error correction model, the stability of the test data and model, the relevance of the time series, long-term co-integration relationship, the impact degree and the contribution of each other before. According to the empirical results, and theoretical basis, to build the international oil price on China’s economy conduction mechanism, has been clear about the international oil prices on economic output, price level, the role of social welfare. Finally summarizes the full text of the research, and puts forward the corresponding policy recommendations, for our country energy reform and the healthy development of social economy. Detailed research content mainly includes three aspects:First, the international oil price fluctuation trend and cause the cause of price volatility. Based on previous data, the international oil price fluctuations are analyzed in each period, oil supply and demand and the geopolitical impact of oil price volatility. Finally pick out the international oil price in 2000-2014 data, because the international oil price has experienced the variation trend of representative significance, for analysis of the present world oil market and it is very important topredict the future price trend.Second, the international oil prices impact on the economy and the transmission mechanism. Macroeconomic research is a huge subject, full of complexity and uncertainty. But through quantitative and qualitative analysis, we can gradually get the law of economic development. Research on the economic impact of international oil price, leave the predecessors’ research, on the basis of the classical theory, using the latest economic data and the modern analysis method, summarizes the international oil price on China’s economy conduction of three paths, and its total economic output path, path of supply demand and monetary value, new results are obtained. Data analysis results show that the oil supply and demand are the decisive factors in the international oil price, determine the long-term trend of the international oil prices. China’s economic system in the face of international oil price shocks,caused by the fluctuation is not so big. International oil prices and the relationship between the interest rate is complex, according to the realistic state of the economy are analyzed.Third, put forward the corresponding policy Suggestions according to the research results. The economic development of the current our country is facing the most serious moment since the 2009 financial crisis, economic downward pressure increase, the economic structure has not been fully restored and difficulty of social economy in the reform. According to the research conclusion of the article, for future energy reform and economic development provides a lot of useful advice.