Factors Affect The Price Of Coal Correlation Analysis And Forecast

Our country's characteristic of energy resources storage and the advantage if coal cost decides that the non-renewable resources would take the most important part in the market for a long time. The fluctuation of the price not only affects the coal market , but also decide weather national economy could develop smoothly. This article use the method of econometric to analyse the relationship of the coal price and the correlative factors. I hope it can give some help to the production and the development of national econmy, this article is divided into six parts.Chapter 1 is introduction, which reviews the present state, and points out the originality innovation of the article and deficiency.Chaper 2 introduces the pricing structure and the influencing factors.Chaper 3 which is the main part of the article, analyses the influencing factors. Firstly, it analyses the relationship of the coal price and quantity of the supply and demand, then use the linear regession model and Granger causality to test the result. By study, I find that the price would influtes according to the quantity of the supply and demand in a long term, but in a short period, the amount of sales is mutually inverse. Secondly analyses the coal price fluctuation provoked by policies, downstream products and the price of petroleym. The result turns out that the fators all give much influence to the coal price. The alternation of coal pricing structure will induce the price to fluctuate obviously, the alternation of downstream product price will give the equidirectional effect to the price, the relation between coal price and petroleum price is positive-going, the up-trend of petroleum will induce associated effect which will rise the coal price.Chapter 4 analyses the causal relation between coal price of Shanxi and Qinhuangdao, the result turns out that in short period the price of Qinhuangdao affected by previous price but not the price of Shanxi. The price of Shanxi is affected both by previous price and the price of Qinhuangdao.Chapter 5 is the forecast of the coal price, the result turns out that the forecast coincides with the actual and fitted valuve is closed to the actual.Chapter six gives the conclusion of this text, and proposes some suggestion for policies to readjustment and control for coal price.