Mobility And Fertility Prediction Of Guangdong Pension Actuarial Impact Study

At present, China's ongoing reform of the pension system, its financing modes have became to the system of accumulation funds from pay-cost system, the payment methods changed to treatment combined with Payment system from booked treatment.Management changed from Enterprise endowment to social endowment.Chinese Pension system reform have experienced lots of difficulties since 1980's.state council issued Dicision of the united basic old-age insurance system of workers Formally at July 16, 1997.which unites whole country's insurance system.The Dicision says that three part which are basic insurance,enterprise pension,personal pension combine the country's insurance system,basic insurance is the first part of the insurance system which is combined by Social pension and personal pension.The basic insurance is financed by enterprise and persons enforcedly.the enterprise pension financed by enterprise and persons freely,which is managed by Fund departments.the payment is determined by the amount of pension and the investment rate of return.the personal pension is determined by oneself,which can be achieved by purchasing Insurance policies,deposit or other investment.the workers' pension is financed by social and persons.the social account is financed by enterprise.the individual account is financed by enterprise and persons.the person's account is accumulated in Bank interest rates of the same period.the pensions paid based on the amount of the individual account after the workers retired.Uniry in the basic old-age insurance programme, adopted the new to new approaches, elderly old methods and middle-way transition.In this paper, in Guangdong Province old-age insurance system long-term actuarial valuation models, including the population forecast model, insured population projection model, the system model to assess the debt, long-term pension payments system simulation model based on the adjusted population growth model, population migration model,based on the original data and the new situation, using model calculations and analyse the level of debt accumulation and the trend of Guangdong Province old-age insurance system , under the different debt-sharing model, analysing the system's long-term financial capacity and sustainability. analysing the provincial level billing and treatment, regional redistribution of income, etc. on the basis of in-depth analysis of the population of Guangdong province, a number of variable factors to be adjusted and make it fit reality, so that the model can forecast to achieve better results, and add some new recommendations to the original policy.