Regional Logistics Demand Forecasting

With the economic globalization and informationlization accelerating continuously, logistics as the new service industry that has broad prospects and value-added function has been developing rapidly throughout the world. At present, all countries in the world attaches great importance to the development of logistics industry, especially making deepening reform in relevant theoretical research, logistics practice, logistics technology and so on, which makes logistics industry become a new economic growth point and pulling power.Regional logistics as one important part of the modern logistics, its development level has become the key factor that impact on the regional economy's development. Therefore, the study of regional logistics demand and regional economic development is of great theoretical and practical value for third-party logistics enterprises to develop logistics business, to enrich and improve the regional logistics theory, and for government departments to enhance China's modern logistics industry's development planning.However, due to the development of China's logistics industry is still in the initial stage, the logistics demand forecast of the historical data required by Statistics is still not complete and scientific, and because the logistics data and relevant regional economic data exists a high degree of accuracy and non-linear, which leading to the prediction analysis of the use of traditional methods can not be achieved a very good forecast effect. So under the situation of the sampled data limited, how to choose the appropriate method to carry on the reasonable forecast to the region logistics demand will become a very important issue. On the other hand, the research progress of information science and technology shows that, intelligence information processing technology which including genetic algorithms, neural networks, kernel methods, is expected to provide an effective way for regional logistics demand forecast.In order to make an effective forecast of regional logistics demand and provides a reference to various regional logistics planning. This paper firstly studies the domestic and foreign regional logistics' develop situation and its existence shortage. Then analysis the relationship between regional logistics and regional economic, and points out the major factors that affects on logistics demand. After that, we construct the index system for regional logistics demand forecast, and establish an appropriate regional logistics demand combination forecast model. Finally takes Shanghai as an example for empirical study to this model, and put forward the related proposal and countermeasure.