Research On Regional Logistics Demand Forecast Based On BP Neural Network And Evidence Theory

In the background of economic globalization and regional economic integration, the ceaseless advancement of modern information networks technology, as well as the consummation increasingly of supply chain management theory, regional logistics has become one of the important domains of modern logistics development. Whether regional logistics capability and regional economy development level can develop in phase, has become one of the important factors whether regional economy can develop continuously, fast, stably, healthily. It is also has significant strategic sense to the regional industry structure optimized and adjustment.In China, logistics has become one of the key planning and development in governments at all levels. Many areas have made logistics as a new economic growth point. After the Outline of the Eleventh Five-Year Plan, provincial and municipal governments made regional logistics development program or planning one after another. However, to make reasonable planning, it needs rational analysis and accurate prediction for the scale of the logistics the demand. Therefore, government, logistics departments and the logistics park construction sectors are all very concerned about the the demand for logistics products. This paper analyzes the factors that affect the regional logistics, particularly economic factors, and then establish a regional logistics demand model which was tested by real data.At first, this paper set out the basic theory of regional logistics demand, which include the purpose and characteristics of the logistics demand analysis, the contents of regional logistics demand analysis studies, research of the predictability of regional logistics demand; Secondly, establish indicators of regional logistics demand, which include regional economic indicator and logistics demand indicator; Thirdly, establish a regional logistics demand forecast model through the indicators and knowledge about Neural Networks and D-S Theory; Finally, take regional logistics in Hubei Province as an example of the empirical model to verify the validity of the model, and give some recommendations on logistics planning and policy in Hubei Province.