Listed Manufacturing Companies In China Forecasting Model Study

Being of high academic and applicable worthy, the research on the prediction offinancial crisis draws many people's attention at home and abroad. With the rapidgrowth of capital market, various problems of listed companies were revealed andcompanies having financial crisis increased. Therefore, financial crisis has becomeone of the most important risks that need to be predicted and managed for businessstakeholders. An acute pre-warning system of financial crisis is of realisticsignificance for preventing financial crisis, safeguarding investors' and creditors'interests and stock supervisory authorities' supervision on listed companies' qualityand stock market risk.This paper took listed companies that were specially treated the first time for financialreasons in Shenzhen and Shanghai stock market from 2004 to 2007 and paired healthycompanies as samples. 24 financial indexes were selected to build a financialpre-warning model. Financial data of Changhe Automobile Co., Ltd (600372) wereapplied to the model to test its validity.Firstly, this paper expounded the backgrounds and significance of empirical researchon financial pre-warning model. The train of thought and methods were put forwardthrough literature review and a comparison of domestic and overseas researchfindings.Secondly, this paper selected 24 financial indexes that were proved to be effective inprediction by previous research. A financial pre-warning model was built throughlogistic regression analysis of sample companies by SPSS, and the model's accuracyratio and misjudgment ratio were tested.Thirdly, taking Changhe Automobile Co., Ltd as an example, this paper predicted itsfinancial status by the pre-warning model and thoroughly analyzed its background andthe reasons of its financial crisis.The last part was the contribution and the deficiency of this paper.