The Research On Financial Early Warning Of China's Automobile Industry Listed Companies

With the gradual improvement of China's market economy,the automotive industry experienced nearly 60 years of development,has occupied an important position in the national economy and has become an important pillar industry in China.But with the macro-economic growth is slow,the complexity of the market intensified,China's auto industry is facing enormous pressure.According to the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers data show that in 2015 China's total production of vehicles 24,503,300,an increase of 3.29%,the lowest in recent years.In the future market,the competition in the automotive industry is bound to intensify,which makes each company in the automotive industry not only concerned about the development of the industry,but also pay attention to the company's own financial risks.Through the establishment of appropriate financial industry listed companies early warning model,the company made a warning of crisis,the company can take timely coping strategies to effectively prevent or avoid the occurrence of financial crisis.Therefore,it is of great significance for the development of listed companies in the automobile industry to construct financial early warning model of listed companies in the automobile industry.In this paper,the domestic and foreign scholars of financial early warning research results are summarized,combing the theory of financial early warning,summed up the different scholars on the definition of financial crisis.Secondly,it analyzes the financial risk of the listed companies in the automobile industry.In the selection of samples,the automobile industry listed companies in the vehicle manufacturing companies and parts companies as a whole,so the selection of sample companies to extend the crisis in the company select the year.Thirdly,the data of T-2 years and T-3 years obtained by SPSS19.0 were used for normal distribution test,non-parametric test and principal component analysis respectively.Through these three methods,financial indicators and non-financial indicators were selected to construct T-2 and T-3 Logistic financial early-warning models.And select the Q company data into the early warning model,the application of analysis.Finally,the prediction accuracy of Logistic financial early-warning model is 98.1% and 92.6% respectively in T-2 and T-3 years,which proves that the two year financial early-warning model established in this paper has significant prediction effect,and have a certain meaning.