Change From The Territory Of Long-term Business Characteristics Of The Market Mechanism Of Rmb Exchange Rate Formation

In recent years,with the continuous growing of China's economy,China's balance of international payments has continuous surplus in the current account,and as well as the foreign exchange reserve.The pressure of Renminbi appreciation is getting more and more.But the appreciation should be held step by step under the economy development,taking account of the social and economic reality,ensuring no excessive volatility arises.If the Renminbi appreciates too fast or make a big cut of Renminbi exchange rate,there is a big problem with China's economy because the national industrial structure adjusting is not an end yet.It is becoming an urgent and realistic topic to study and explore that how to adjust the pressure of Renminbi appreciation in the premiss of Renminbi' s gradual appreciation.The thesis analyzes DF(Domestic Forward) as a breakthrough first,and discusses the effective conduction with DF to the market mechanism of Renminbi exchange rate in inter-bank foreign exchange market,in order to achieve the goal of adjust pressure of RMB appreciation.The Main body of this thesis consists of six chapters with its structure as follows:ChapterⅠ:General description of the whole thesis.It includes the reason for studying this topic,the structure arrangement,possible innovation and study method etc.ChapterⅡ:Literature review.This chapter introduces and summarizes the relevant theory and research in the internal and external academe,including the theory of Interest Parity,theory of the reciprocity,etc.And then it illustrates my own opinion about the thesis' topic.ChapterⅢ:The statement of historical evolution about the Renminbi exchange rate regime and the exchange rate formation mechanism,which consists of three parts.ChapterⅣ:The introduction to the DF and NDF.It makes a comparison with them,and points out that there must be arbitrage activity if the spread of DF and NDF is enough,and the arbitrage activity will enlarge the transaction volume of DF.ChapterⅤ:Primary thought and specific analysis on each stage of characteristic of DF from 21^st,7,2005,which is divided as three parts according the changes of national center bank during that time.This chapter analyzes the effect on DF with arbitrage activity and the speed of Renminbi appreciation,discusses the conduction of DF to the market mechanism of Renminbi exchange rate in inter-bank foreign exchange market,and then explains the impact on macro-economy with DF.It makes a focus on analysis of the change of pricing basis of DF,and concludes that the pricing of DF contains the composition of expectation to Renminbi appreciation.This chapter is the most important part of this thesis.ChapterⅣ:Summary of thesis conclusion,content that need to be improved in future,and specific suggestions on deepening the development of China DF and swap market and promotion of China interest rate marketization.