The Empirical Research On Forecasting The Demand Of Office Building Of Hangzhou

Office building is not only fixed assets for corporations, but also a weatherglass of the urban economy and regional economy. The scale, distribution and the relationship between supply and demand of the office building directly reflect the urban and regional economy development and the characteristics of the industrial structure.As Hangzhou enters into the post-industrial era, some economic factors change significantly such as the industrial structure, the number of corporations, the employment and the capital stock. These changes will also change the effective demand of office building significantly. The office building market of Hangzhou is experiencing a rising time that never occurred before. Demand is an important index to value the development of office building market of Hangzhou. The empirical analysis on the demand of office building will be of great theoretical and practical significance.This thesis systematically expatiates the basic theories and researches on the office building market and the demand of office building, summarizes the domestic and foreign advanced experience of the development of office building market, and appraises the situation and development environment of office building market of Hangzhou. This thesis analyzes the factors that influence the demand of office building from the macro point of view, and establishes weight of each factor by AHP. Comparing with the models of office building, this thesis decides to establish Panel Data Model and BP Neural Network to quantitative analysis the influence of each factor. Both of these models use the number of employed persons of tertiary industry, GDP and the deposit balance of financial institutions as independent variables, and use the demand of office building as dependent variable. Then according to the characteristics of historical data and the analysis of macro-economic situation, this thesis uses Gray Model and Trend Extrapolation to forecast the independent variable, and then forecast the demand of office building of Hangzhou from 2008 to 2012. Finally, this thesis confirms the final rational forecasting result by comparing the forecasting results of these models. The conclusion of this thesis could be used to be the reference of the land usufruct-transaction decision for Hangzhou government, the marketing and investing decision for real estate corporation and consuming decision for the customers.