The Quantitive Decomposition And Assessement To Factors Influencing The External Economic Imbalance Of China

With the interdependent of the world on economy increases greatly,the imbalance problem of global economy appears and has attracted the general concern of governments,academics andinvestors.Although the Unites States current account deficit has brought many benefits for their own country and countries around it in particular time and range,the global economic imbalance brings and will bring a lot of adverse effects for external countries.China's huge trade surplus also bring greater inflationary pressures and lower level of resource allocation.During the situation of the vulnerable financial market,the RMB is facing enormous pressure,which may make the problem of domestic employment worsen and foreign exchange reserves shrink significantly.Moreover,the global economic imbalance will also lead to increased trade protectionism countries,increasing international trade disputes to WTO at the core of multilateral trade negotiation very difficult.At the face of global economic imbalances, the major structure of our country also can not be an exception.Over the years, our country has maintained a huge surplus,and high savings rate.At the same time, the investment is running high for many years and has been accompanied by insufficient consumption. Therefore, there is a clear imbalance in the external economy in our country, which accompanied by an internal imbalance. Global economic imbalances has caused far-reaching effects to Chinese economy. In recent years China's economy is growing external imbalances, whose outstanding performance is the current account surplus is too large, and the increase of foreign exchange reserves is too rapid. China's current account and capital account surplus exist at the same time. With the expanding scale of foreign exchange reserves, the balance of payments imbalances seriously. The purpose of this paper is proven through empirical research the external imbalance of China's economic reasons.Through the impact of the external imbalance of the decomposition and evaluation factors to work out the factors causing the external imbalance.The purpose of this paper is to research the reasons of the external imbalance of China's economic through empirical research.Decompose and evaluate the factors which impact the external imbalance in order to get the answers. In this paper, we explore it in two aspects, the impact of external factors on external imbalance and the impact of internal factors on external imbalances.The impact of external factors on the external imbalance is mainly to explore the impact of exchange rate on the impact of the external imbalance, while the latter study the impact of consumption, investment, savings on external imbalance. As a result of the exchange rate variables are not readily quantified, so the exchange rate impact of the external imbalance is mainly a qualitative analysis of the mechanism, this article focuses on the impact of three internal variables on external imbalances, the establishment of a quantitative model, the cointegration regression analysis and obtained equation. And make macroeconomic policies and recommendations for external imbalance of our country.