Repeat Purchase Model On The Proliferation Of Mobile Users In China

The research on innovation diffusion model has been an attractive field since it was inducted in technique prognosticate and market in the 1960s. There appear lots of various models in technique prognosticate and market, in which the Bass model is the most famous one. After the appearance of Bass in 1969, the market theory ensured the main research way of the diffusion model. Bass model and its relevant expand models are applied widely, it's also faced with some challenges because of its narrow limitation. In fact, because of the rarity of the innovation diffusion suiting Bass model, people work on the improvement and development of Bass model to bring up many improved models, which, nevertheless, are not applied by public widely. In American and European, the diffusion models are being used and being reearched in a more and more diffusely way. However, this research is still in an initial period, which means a long distance far away from the developed country not only in theory research but also in practice application. The theory is mainly about the application of Bass model and the repurchasing model. This research is caught out in this way: look up lots of literature, judge and analyze the research results and methods of technique innovation diffusion model, study on the construction, application and estimates on parameter of Bass model. Considering the limitation of single purchase of the Bass model, we have discussed the repurchasing model. Moreover, based on the research we have constructed a sample model with the specific contribution circumstances of the customers of China Mobile to some further study.Bass model was published in 1969. The new products diffusion suiting the condition of Bass model became less and less in 40 years of development, especially the emergence of repeatable purchasing of high-technique products.The diffusion model can not be built rightly if we adopt Bass model directly in defiance of the repurchasing of the customer group. Hence, this theory carries out the following research based on Bass.A comparison was taken by a scholar on the result of the estimates on parameter taken respectively by Ordinary Least Square Method(OLS), Maximum Likelihood Method(MLE), Nonlinear Least Square Method (NLS)and Genetic Algorithm(GA) to Bass model, which indicated that the Genetic Algorithm is the best to estimate especially in the shortage of model data sequence. Based on that, this article estimates the elucidatory taken by the Genetic Algorithm and the interspecies competition improved Genetic Algorithm to Bass model. And after the comparison of their analog value, it turns out that the improved GA reserves the advantages of GA and gets over the disadvantages of original GA and finds the best solution fastest. Another estimate is taken between Bass model and Repurchasing model. With the comparison of their fitted value, it turns out that the latter is more suitable for the truth. At last, the theory builds the repurchasing model based on the data of China Mobile Customers from 1993 to 2006. And through the estimate to the parameter of the improved Genetic Algorithm to model, the theory also forecasts the develop situation in the next period of our mobile market.