Research On Mobile Phones Product Diffusion Model Of Heilongjiang Province

With the coming of information age, as one of the most commonly used information communication tool, communication product's fuction is more and more big in our life, the development of all kinds of new application based on communication technology, changes our forms and habits of comsumption, living and entertainment. So communication industry's impact on economic development is more and more obvious. And mobile phone is a representative of communication products, studying its diffusion regularity and characteristic has the vital significance to the communication industry.China's mobile phone developed from 1987 when 1G was put into use. In 2009, 3G licenses were delivered and its use is ever-widening now. All above takes 24 years. Mobile communication network also converses from analog to digital signal. That takes a long time of three generations of technological changes. Many scholars do research on the technologies and products of China's communications market. But in the academic field, the researches focusing on one certain province, and using more detailed data are almost blank.This paper gets the data of mobile phone network access number from Heilongjiang Communication Administration, gets the relevant analysis index from National Bureau of Statistics of China, based on theory and models of innovation diffusion, attempts to analyze the diffusion of the province's 2G, 3G mobile phones from the aspects of price changing, generations, competition etc. This paper proposes the more suitable extended models for depicting the province's diffusion status, and summarizes the analysis conclusion and management advice, which are important to the province communication industry and related departments.This paper first analyzes related research background, theoretical basis and definition. And then, combined with annual data of integrated mobile phone users of Heilongjiang Province, we establish several new diffusion models incorporating the influence of price factor, and find that the extended model incorporating price factor can depict mobile telephones'diffusion better, and the changing of price doesn't have any impact on the diffusion rate, however, it has impact on the products'market potential. After that, to the statue of 2G, 3G diffuse simultaneously in Heilongjiang Province, we discuss and analyze that with the multiple generations diffusion models , and find that the introduction of 3G mobile phone will increase the customer group which is as 10 times as the original market potential produced by 2G mobile phone. Currently, 2G's diffusion is tend to be saturated gradually, while, with the each month sales of 3G increasing step by step, its diffusion will reach the take-off point. And then, by analyzing the amount of mobile phone adopters of two main communication operators, China Mobile and China Unicom, in Heilongjiang Province, we can judge these two operators'competitive relation, furthermore, establish the models and prove that, under the pressure of these two operators'word-of-mouth effect, non-adopters is more likely to adopt the product of China Mobile. Finally, combined with three angles above, we put forward some management advice and reference opinions for the development of mobile phone of this province.