Vietnam Exports Function Empirical Research

Viet Nam, one of the developing countries in the world, is rather financially hard after break up of Soviet Union. In recent 30 years, it has made desperate efforts to dispose the problems after the war and develop economy, which is transferred from conservative planned economy to market economy. In 1986, Viet Nam began to implement the reform and opening-up policy. In 2001, they set the goal of "socialism directed market economy" and suggested to integrate Viet Num into the world economic system and strive to develop extraverted economy. In background of free investment market, many foreign investors are concerning about Viet Nam or going to entry the market if Viet Nam. For about 20 years since reform and opening-up, Viet Nam has made great achievement in external trades, especially the great impacts on development of economy and trades of the entrance of WTO. This paper pointes at the unstable states of economy and society since the 1990s and choose the export trades of Viet Nam as research object. This paper gives qualitative analysis about the factors affecting the export trades of Viet Nam in the method of classic theory of international trades, presents quantificationnally research through the theory of co-integration and vector auto-regression model and gives the dynamic and static forecasts of the model at last. The results indicate that the main factors of Viet Nam's export trades are the import trades, GDP, FDI. From the long-range co-integration model, we find that the import trades and GDP have significant positive effects and FDI has negative effects. The direct investment structure of foreign investors gives reasonable explanation of the demonstration results. From the error correction model, we find that the adjust intensity of 0.7195 can turn the unbalanced state into balanced state when short period fluctuation deviate from long-range balance. From the pulse response function of export trades, import trades, export trades and FDI, we conclude that we could increase import trades or inputs of FDI through government policy if we want to increase export trades, and then the export trades could be increased, but the raise margin is limited and the increase has hysteretic nature. From the variation solutions of VAR model, we can find that all of import trade, GDP and FDI have effects on export trades, so we could increase the export trades through long-term strategic deployment. The static forecast values of export, import and FDI is co-responding to the actual values of Viet Nam. According to the analysis and results, this paper also throws out some advisable suggestions about the development of the export trades of Viet Nam.