China Agricultural Economic Growth

Non-linear model, Cobb-Douglas production function, has many advantages and is suitable for analyzing agricultural production. This paper adopts 31 selected provinces and autonomous regions (excluding Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan) of the 2008 data and the 1990-2008 time series data according to the method of factor analysis of economic growth and Cobb-Douglas production function, to establishment the cross-section data model and time series data model of the national agricultural production function.We have got statistically significant parameter estimates and have discussed the parameters which have the failure to pass the significance test rigorously. The research indicates the following aspects:At present, capital and land make a significant contribution in agricultural production in China.The former's effect is much more important. But labor, for the time being, is not a main factor.There are so many surplus labor force in china now. And technological progress does not play a significant role in the agricultural production. The effect of various factors of production varies considerably among different regions.According to the analysis point of view of the time-series data from 1990 to 2008, the analysis results are essentially the same with the results of the cross-section data of 2008.The estimation results show that the historical factors and current factors which have impacts on China's agricultural economic growth are relatively consistent.The major factors are still the agricultural capital investment and sown area of agricultural land.Based on these concise conclusions,we have given some corresponding countermeasures and suggestions,such as speeding up the transfer of rural surplus labor force,increasing capital investment in agriculture,improving the existing land policy amendments,expanding the accesss to agricultural extension and training and increasing the investment in rural education of government to promote the accumulation of human capital in rural areas, etc.The aim of this paper is to provide some quantitative information for our country's agricultural production planning and management.