| The prediction of financial distress has always been an important research topic. The establishment of financial distress prediction mechanism determines the survival of enterprises.According to the analysis of relevant research at home and abroad, previous research was based on universal applicability, however, as the economy continues to develop, the differences between industries are more and more obvious, to build prediction mechanism for the various sectors has been a hot spot of the financial distress prediction.Bio-pharmaceutical industry is known as the "eternal sunrise industry." In western countries, the bio-pharmaceutical industry has a high-tech, high-risk and high-returns characteristics, with high barriers to entry and strong monopoly. Foreign bio-pharmaceutical companies face greater risks of R & D, but once a successful research and development into production, by virtue of its technical superiority as well as high barriers to entry and strong monopoly the enterprises will be able to reap huge gains.But in China, due to bio-pharmaceutical companies' weak R & D ability, a lot of technical and patents come directly from abroad, so China's bio-pharmaceutical companies ignore the emphasis on R & D but on production and sales, resulting in China's pharmaceutical industry's specific sectors with low barriers to entry, severe redundant construction, highly cost of sales and extremely competitive and so on. Because of the lack of R & D base, once the marketing have problems, it is easy for a enterprise to fall into financial difficulties.Thus, the market risks of China's pharmaceutical industry have become more prominent. Current financial tsunami is sweeping the globe, which has increased the possibility of the pharmaceutical companies falling into financial distress.The establishment of financial distress prediction system for the pharmaceutical industry is significant for reducing or avoiding the loss.For this reason, this paper chooses financial distress prediction of China's bio-pharmaceutical industry as the topic, from the analysis of the characteristics of China's bio-pharmaceutical industry, start with the establishment of financial distress prediction indicator system suited to industry-specific features of China's bio-pharmaceutical industry. Then this paper analyzes the signs of financial distress for the expectation to establish a reasonable standard in order to achieve the purpose of establishing a more specific financial distress prediction mechanism for China's bio-pharmaceutical industry.This paper is divided into five chapters. Each chapter briefly describes contents as follow:ChapterⅠ:IntroductionThis chapter explaines the background, significance of this study, research methods and research content, defines the relevant concepts of financial distress prediction, meanwhile describes current researches of financial distress prediction in various sectors and summarizes the prediction methods.ChapterⅡ:The establishment of financial distress prediction indicator system for the bio-pharmaceutical industryThis chapter describes the features of a mature bio-pharmaceutical industry in western countries, analyzes China's bio-pharmaceutical industry's characteristics and establishes a financial distress indicators system for China's bio-pharmaceutical industry based on these characteristics.ChapterⅢ:The empirical study of financial distress prediction for China's bio-pharmaceutical industryThis chapter analyzes signs before financial distress by describing statistical methods for the bio-pharmaceutical industry, compares respectively for the bio-pharmaceutical industry's ST (* ST) companies and non-ST (* ST) companies in the financial indicators using independent samples T test, in order to establish appropriate standards for prediction.ChapterⅣ:Case StudyThis chapter carries out a practical operation of financial distress prediction in the form of a group of control case to prove that the financial distress prediction mechanism established in this paper for China's bio-pharmaceutical industry is feasible.ChapterⅤ:SummaryThis chapter summarizes the contents of this paper and analyzes the limitations of this study.Compared with previous studies, this paper's research perspective and methods are different.This article focuses on the bio-pharmaceutical industry's financial distress prediction, uses qualitative and quantitative methods, targeted to enrich the financial distress prediction of enterprises in the sub-industry study; moreover, the analysis of control case in this paper adds the persuasion.However, the lack of datas and research abilities results in the problems of the sample selection and handling, the breadth and depth of research, non-financial indicators'leading and some new factors' impact, which makes the research still insufficient. Studies on these issues in future will be very meaningful. |
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