Research On Financial Distress Prediction Of Chinese Listed Company

At present, scholars have done a lot researches about financial distress prediction of China’s listed companies with different methods and different models. About selecting prediction indicator, scholars did many attempts among traditional financial indicators, cash flow and corporate governance angles. At the same time, I find that very few scholars study financial distress prediction from asset structure. In order to make up research vacancies in this area and to extend prediction system, and also to enhance the awareness of asset management, this paper will start with asset structure, after deeply analysis the relationship between asset structure and financial distress, we will lead the asset structure variables into model and build a new prediction model.Firstly, this paper uses system theory and portfolio theory as theoretical basis, we deeply analyze the relationship among asset structure, enterprise performance and financial distress, which provides a solid theoretical basis of prediction model building.Then, this paper choose46the new ST sample and46compared companies in accordance with asset size. After that, we select34finance indicators and20asset structure indicators. Use significant test, correlation analysis and Multicollinearity diagnostics statistical analysis etc. we finally select4finance indicators and4asset structure indicators as independent variables. At last, we made use of Logistic regression analysis build two model, one with finance indicators only, the other with asset structure indicators and finance indicators, and compare the predictive accuracy of the two models. The empirical results show that the model adds asset structure indicators prediction accuracy increased by4.4%.