Semiconductor Manufacturing Capacity Planning, Risk Assessment And Control Research

This paper is mainly based on the subject of"Capacity prediction and risk decision-making study for dynamic uncertainty", which is the subject of Natural Science Foundation of China (approved No. 70701007). The research mainly includes two parts:"Capacity prediction for dynamic uncertainty"and"Risk assessment and control of capacity planning". This paper studied the latter subject and focused on the short-term production capacity planning of semiconductor manufacturing, whose date was from a famous semiconductor assembly and testing factory.Semiconductor production line is currently the world's most complex manufacturing system. The characterize of semiconductor production line, such as the wide variety of products, complex process, high utilization of equipments and so on, bring great difficulty to the semiconductor capacity planning. Therefore, capacity planning process is fraught with many uncertainties and risks. The redundancy or shortage of production capacity plan would lead wastage or loss of market share to enterprise. This paper built a risk assessment model to measure the risk of capacity planning results, and then identified the risk source of capacity planning, made risk control strategies; in this way to void the loss of capacity planning deviation. The main contents of this paper are as follows:1. Capacity planning risk assessment based on Value-at-Risk. Discussed the feasibility of applying Value-at-Risk into the risk assessment of capacity planning. Built a capacity planning risk assessment model based on Value-at-Risk and got the assessment result.2. Risk source identification of capacity planning based on fault tree analysis method. Staring from the key factors of capacity planning, made the qualitative and quantitative study to the risk sources of capacity planning by using fault tree analysis method.3. Capacity planning risk control strategy formulation based on fuzzy comprehensive evaluation Method. After identified the risk sources of capacity planning, applied the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method to formulate the suitable risk control strategies of semiconductor capacity planning, which took subjective and objective factors.4. Risk assessment and control system designing for Capacity planning. Based on the results of risk assessment and control research, designed the system of risk assessment and control for capacity planning which include risk assessment, risk source identification and risk control.