Reliability Past-evaluation To Expressway Construction Projects

Expressway construction is important to the national economy and the people's livelihood, involving huge investment of the manpower, the physical resource and the fund, if the decision is error, it will be able to bring the heavy loss. Therefore, not only must make the detailed feasible proof in the earlier period of construction, study each factor which can influence expressway construction for decision accurate and investment effective, but also must carry on the after assessment for expressway items, through establish perfect content system for the dependability assessment to the expressway construction project, develop thorough assessment work, inspect the feasible research work of the construction project, reduces the phenomenon of artificial intervention in the earlier period, corrects the question which exists in the decision-making and the operation management in time. Developing thorough assessment work will enhance the scientific level of project decision-making and the management, promot the investment standardization and enhance investment benefit. It is also the important measure to enhances the macroscopic policy-making and the project management level ,as well as the important content to promote state investment system legalization and the important method to insure the investment is implemented and to perfect the decision error investigation system. In addition, through the dependability assessment, we can find the survival and the development way for the project which in the serious difficult position because of decision error or environment change. It provides the policy-making basis for the responsible department, and have the function to supervises and inspects the project construction.This article based on the dependability principle, it analyses the importance of the dependability assessment to the construction project of the expressway, and the index the index system and concrete formula of the assessement are proposed. It sets up the FTA model which influences decision , and does the nature and quantitative analysis to the model. It sets up the function of dependability probability, and proves the feasibility of this function with the instance.Through the conventional fault tree analysis for the dependability assessment to the construction project of the expressway , in view of the shortcoming of this analytic method, lead into the fuzzy mathematics theory, proposed the fuzzy fault tree analytic method for dependability assessment to the expressway construction project which suits the complex model, this method is quantifiable and feasible, provides the more scientific policy-making basis for the policy-maker.