Studies Of International And Domestic Crude Oil Prices - Historical Relations That Affect

Crude oil is a basic energy resource and important chemical material, oil price shocks have great influence to the world economy. After entering into the 21th century, international crude oil price rising continually and fluctuating frequently, oil price concerned by the whole world as one of the most important questions. As oil price shocks bring huge impact to the economy, it also bring deep discussion to researchers. They gave out explanations by making theories and models dissimilarly. So analyze the influence factors and the history of form mechanism of the crude oil price, the correlation between international and domestic crude oil price, and the influence of oil price shocks have vital signality on protecting our energy safety and on keeping our economy growing stably and healthily.This paper focus on crude oil price, firstly reviewed the history of crude oil price and exploitation, secondly analyzed the influence factors of international crude oil price and the history of the form mechanism of crude oil price; thirdly made empirical model by using Cointegration Theory, Granger Causality Test and Variance Decomposition Methodology, analyzed the correlation between international and domestic crude oil price; and lastly explained the influence of oil price shocks according to some basic economical principles. The purpose of this paper is to find out inside rules, to enhance macro-economical adjustment and to improve decision-making ability for our government.The main conclusions and suggestions of this paper are: crude oil price raise have multistage track, there are highly positive correlation, long-term steady cointegration and unsymmetrical bi-Granger causality relationship between international and domestic crude oil price, oil price shocks have great influence to macroeconomics and related industries, our government should change status from oil price maker into oil market supervisor. Based on these conclusions, this paper suggests our government put strength on the following area: reform management system of oil industry, impel energy lawmaking; enhance international cooperation, implement strategy of internationalization; participate the form of international crude oil price, enlarge influence power; build strategy crude oil deposit system; design independent crude oil pricing system; design energy finance system, prepare national energy fund; encourage saving energy, quicken exploiting new energy.The title of this paper holds the balance at international finance analyzing field. And the innovations are: 1. this paper made a deep research from different aspect. 2. this paper made a full-scale consideration of qualitative analysis, and made some breakthrough on empirical analysis, data chosen is very timely and very typically, in case to avoid the arbitrariness of one time judgment, and to discover the Granger Causality relationship objectively, this paper made Granger Causality Test twenty times.3. this paper integrated the research of oil history, influence factors, the form mechanism and the relationship of crude oil price, and combined the research of influence from oil price shocks, it's a combination of crude oil price research.