Analysis Of Coking Coal Future And Spot Price

In recent years, the production efficiency of steel industry in China sustained high economic level under the influence of rapid growth, but also with the coke yield increased year by year. At the same time, the market for coking coal demand is gradually increasing. Show according to relevant data, in the coking coal imports and consumption of the rankings, China has ranked first in the world, but the coal trade market has been by several foreign companies control, continuous rise in price, but domestic Related Companies have no market pricing, in the price can only let the other decisions. In our country, because of coking coal futures has not officially launched, the company will not be able to find shelter, unable to find a guide the production and operation of the spot price information, management risk is significantly improved. In order to solve related problems, Dalian futures exchange launched coking coal futures in March 22, 2013. Just coking coal futures and coke futures, steel futures can form a relatively closed hedging variety chain, and are able to system of coking coal industry chain companies win more benefits, resist more crisis. But the current research in this field in China are few, most are what is the impact of China’s futures market of coking coal futures market based on the post, and what is the role of the coking coal industry chain, the research content rarely reflect the status of coking coal futures market. For example, coking coal futures prices remain whether long-term equilibrium relationship in the spot price, whether to have the function of price discovery, but these studies are needed to establish in the study on the relationship between the futures price and spot price, therefore, it is particularly meaningful to study it. In this paper, through the empirical analysis of the relationship between futures and spot prices for coking coal, can confirm the guide between the long-run equilibrium relationship between the futures and spot prices between the two and two, also can confirm the effectiveness of the function of coking coal futures market, and for the production and operation of enterprises in the price prediction and risk averse to give information to help.In this paper, from September 17, 2013 to December 23, 2014 period of coking coal spot day closing data as the sample, eliminating not corresponding data, finally finishing 306 on time series data, then using the correlation analysis, unit root test, cointegration test, Granger causality test, vector autoregressive model, VECM, impulse response function and variance decomposition econometrics methods such as empirical studies on the relationship between futures and spot prices for coking coal.According to the empirical results show that:1. The long-term trend of coking coal futures contract price and spot price basic consistent, there is a strong correlation between the;2. The influence of coking coal spot prices mainly by its own changes, in the short term, futures prices have limited impact on spot prices;3. There is no long-term equilibrium relationship between the futures and spot prices for coking coal;4. Coking coal futures market in the beginning of operation did not achieve the function of price discovery, but plays in maintaining long-term equilibrium in the role can not be ignored.Finally, according to the results obtained, corresponding suggestions are put forward to on the domestic coking coal market growth.