| The issue of how to avoid medical negligence has raised global concern. In the year 2006 alone medical negligence has cost the lives of 44-98 thousand people,resulting in large scale of economic losses--17-29 billion US dollars. Anhui Province first issued "Regulation on medical risk fund" in 2007, aiming to resolute medical risks once and for all. More and more has been following in its footstep to establish similar regulations. Obviously the prevention and proper disposal of medical risks as well as the improvement of service has been an important issue for hospital management.Targeting on the prediction of medical risks, we discussed some new methods for the predicting process. By exposing the nature of medical risks and analysing of existing methods, this paper made an constructive attempt by using the VaR model.,qualitatively and qualitatively calculating the general level of risk of targeted hospitals, aiming to find its distributional regularity and precisely analysing the overall risk. With its innovational perspective and analysing methods, this paper may be of help to the cause of China's social medical insurance... |