| The dissertation's topic is studying on evaluating the inner value of a corporation from the two aspects of theory and practice by using the method of discounted cash flow. The whole dissertation takes China Minsheng Banking Co., Ltd. as the sole case whose stock code is 600016 and combines theory and case analysis tightly. Furthermore, the writer not only uses much relevant foreign literature but also collects and machines plenty of data based on the actual condition of China, which makes the dissertation valuable in both theory and practice. The dissertation is divided into four parts—— preface, text, epilogue and accessories. The text is divided into five chapters. The preface tells the motivation of the dissertation.The first chapter: the premise of the dissertation. The chapter is divided into two parts. The first is the basic concept and problem, which is composed of six segments. The second is the summarization of the model of discounted cash flow, which comprises five segments. The second chapter: the analysis before the forecasting. This chapter is one of the cores of the dissertation. It is also divided into two parts. The former is the industry analysis. The latter is the corporation analysis. The two parts are the base of whole forecast during the dissertation. Each part is combined close with the analysis of the case. The industry analysis is made up of two segments and the corporation analysis is made up of three segments.The third chapter: forecasting the cash flow. This chapter mainly focuses on forecasting the cash flow and puts forward the new method of forecasting the key factor. This kind of method forecasts the cash flow by using two key factors, the increase ratio and yield. During the analysis of the case the return ratio on assets and the increasing ratio of deposit are regarded as the two key factors.The fourth chapter: forecasting the risk discount rate. The chapter introduces the method of estimating the risk discount rate and it emphasizes estimating the stock capital cost. The CAPM model is used during forecasting the stock capital cost. There are three factors that should be forecasted in this model. The characteristic of this chapter is that different risk discount rate have be used during the specific forecasting period and the continuous value period. The fifth chapter: forecasting the continuous value and calculating the result. The key in forecasting the continuous value is using what kind of supposition, which also determines the specific forecasting period. It is the competition equilibrium supposition that is used in the case analysis of this dissertation. It supposes that the ratio of increase is invariance and the return ratio is equal to the capital cost. In the end, according to the model of discounted cash flow, we can get the final result by using the forecasting result of the former chapters. Epilogue: Some shortages in the dissertation are pointed out. Accessories: This part is divided into four potions as follows: the main reference literatures, endnote, accounting reports as well as postscript. In a word, the dissertation's greatest characteristic is its logic and innovation. The whole dissertation has some innovations in both the content and structure. The innovations in the content are mainly embodied in the following four aspects. First, in the foreign literature there are only two methods, complete forecast and direct forecast to forecast the expecting cash flow. While the writer puts forward the third kind of method, that is the key factor forecast. The method is proved effectively in the case. Second, the model of discounted cash flow in the foreign literature uses the single risk discount rate. However, the characteristic of risk during the specific forecasting period is obviously different from the characteristic of risk during the continuous value period. Therefore the risk discount rate of the two periods must be different too. Third, the increase of sale is often regarded as the drive factor when... |
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