China's Current Economic Cycle Stage With The Proactive Fiscal Policy Research

The thesis study and judge which stage of business cycle the economy stands presently using the fundamental theory of the Western Economics in the first, then investigate some problems relevant to the active fiscal policy which is concerned highly with the present stage of business cycle. The thesis is divided into three chapters, the first chapter mainly study the distinction of the four stages of a typical business cycle, the definition and characteristics of each stage. The second chapter is the emphasis of the paper, in it, firstly we describe the two theoretical analytic approaches used to investigate the present stage of business cycle, the one is the analysis of AD-AS model, the other is the analysis of macroeconomic variable. In the analysis of AD-AS model, we firstly illustrate how to study and judge which stage of business cycle the economy stands by using AD-AS model, then analyze the actual variation of the present aggregate demand. The analysis of macroeconomic variable mainly analyze the change of some important macroeconomic variables, the analysis of some important macroeconomic variables such as GDP growth rate. unemployment rate. price index all show an apparent sign of recovery in the economy of China in 2000. Synthesizing the two aspects of analyses, we can conclude that the present economy of China has entered into the revival stage of a new business cycle. The third chapter firstly illustrates that the basis of aggregate demand of our economy isn substantial enough to sustain the present economic growth, so we must execute the active fiscal policy continually at present, then study the theoretical ground of executing the active fiscal policy by using the ISM model. At last, we argue that there are certain spaces in executing the active fiscal policy continually on the basis of the investigation into the scale and the structure of national debts, and we also propose some feasible suggestions about the directions of the active fiscal policy executed continually at present.