| Since 1998, the government has carried out expansionary financial policy, mainly by increasing treasury bills, and enlarging public investment, and strengthened macroscopic regulation on economy. This year, the authority has indicated definitely that the force on expansionary financial policy will not be weakened. Thus, expansionary financial policy, which is a short-term macroscopic policy as "counter period operation" in economic theory, will be at least for five years, being a medium-term or long-term policy.Based on the effect active financial policy has on macro-economy, this paper discussed the following questions.1. On the history from 1998, the expansionary financial policy in our country has crowding-out effect and the driving effect of T-bills investment to economy growth is far from the theoretic value got by multiplier theory or IS-LM model. The main reasons are: the imperfectness of our market economy system, the irrational of economic structure, the incompleteness of social security system and the infirmness of the authority power.2.The persistent expansion of the treasury bill's scale may lead to financial risk and economic risk. The present financial policy in China lack in durative. On the other hand, the latent debt in China has large scale and has already gone into the stage of being "visible. With the gradual perfection of Market Economy system, China will speed up in setting up public finance system and the government will have to confront the huge scale debt. At present, the government should deal with the latent and debt carefully.3.According to above analysis, the plausible trend of the financial policy in China is as follows:Increasing the expenditure of transfer payment under the prerequisite of keeping certain public investment during a short period, in the long term, decreasing the financial deficiu reducing the ratio of scale of treasure bills to GDP^ implementing reform of finance system and setting up public finance system. |
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