China's "10th Five-year Plan" Period The Size Of Foreign Direct Investment Forecasting And Strategic Analysis

As the formation of buyer's marked increasing of foreign currency reserve and the slowing down of the export growth, China take a major policy decision to carry out the "go out" strategy. Although the Outward Direct Investment (ODI) of China has developed in the recent years, it's still at a beginning stage compared with the scale of China's Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) and the economic potentiality. China has entered the WTO. In order to fully participate in the global cooperation and competition, it's of great necessity to analysis thoroughly and systematically China's Outward Direct Investment (hereafter as CODI). Under such a background, this thesis studies the scale and strategy of CODI in the 10th five-year-plan years.The thesis is divided into six chapters.Chapter 1: Introduction. This chapter briefly introduces the thesis's generalization, including previous work of home and abroad source of the title and researching outcome.Chapter 2: Analysis of Necessities and Possibilities of CODI. This chapter discusses the necessities and possibilities of CODI.Chapter 3: Empirical Analysis of CODI. With an empirical study of the current situation> characteristics and problem existed in CODI, the first three sectors give a comprehensive evaluation of CODI. The last sector discusses the effect of CODI on the economic development of China.Chapter 4: Empirical Study of the Stage of China's Investment Development Cycle (IDC) and Scale Forecasting of CODI. This chapter is one of the key parts of the thesis. With reference to economist Dunning's IDC theory, time series models are developed in the first sector to analysis the stage of CODI. We discover that China is on the second stage of the IDC and shows the trend toward the third stage. By models developed with relevant macro-economic variables, the scale of CODI in the 10th five-year-plan years is forecasted in the second sector as 0.759-0.85 billion US dollars each year and 3.8~4.25 billion US dollars total in the 10th five-year-plan years.Chapter 5: Comparative Analysis of the Motives and Strategies of Japan & Four Dragon's ODI. Chapter five is also a key part of the thesis. The first sector introduces the history and present situation of the Japan & Four Dragon's ODI. In the second sector, the motives of Japan & Four Dragon's ODI are generalized into four types through a comparative analysis. According to the strategy applied in different times, their ODI is divided into three stages and the characteristics of each stage are generalized respectively. Special emphasis is paid on the effect of "Japanese Type" ODI on the industry escalation and the Korea's utilization of ODI in technology promotion. The last sector compares the ODI promotion policies of these countries and regions.Chapter 6: Analysis of the Tactics and Strategies of CODI in the 10th Five-year-plan. Being the conclusion of the thesis, this chapter is also a key part of the thesis. The first four sectors discuss respectively the tactics of industry choice area choice > investment pattern choice and stock ownership choice of CODI. In the last sector, 9 point of suggestions is put forward to promote CODI in the 10th five-year-plan years.