Number Of The Rmb Exchange Rate

Since opening and reform, trade relationship between China and abroad is stronger and stronger and exchange rate plays an important role in national economy. After the exchange rate reform in 1994, in fact, RMB exchange rate is fixed exchange rate. In this case, it is very important to estimating equilibrium exchange rate. In this paper, the author analyzes the factors to decide exchange rate and the estimation of equilibrium exchange rate in empirical analysis.In Chapter One, Sector One analyzes the evolving process of Chinese exchange rate system and the character of present exchange rate system. The conclusion that RMB exchange rate is the fixed exchange rate is made at the basis of analyzing the range of exchange rate fluctuation and present economic state. Sector two analyzes the reason why the exchange rate is not floated.Chapter Two introduces the equilibrium exchange rate theory, which includes the theory of purchasing power parity and Nurkse equilibrium exchange rate theory. Sector one introduces the absolute PPP ,the relative PPP,PPP of including exchange cost,the extended PPP and theory of international monetary. Sector two introduces Nurkse equilibrium exchange rate which includes early equilibrium exchange rate,foundational equilibrium exchange rate(FEER)and behavioral equilibrium exchange rate(BEER). Chapter Three is the empirical analysis of RMB exchange rate.Sector one analyzes the economic variable influencing the RMB exchange rate at the basis of Chapter two,and establishes the theoretic model of RMB equilibrium exchange rate. Sector Two introduces the concept of cointegation and establishes the cointegation equation and error correction model(ECM).Chapter Four,using the result of Chapter Three,analyzes the RMB misalignment between the equilibrium exchange rate and nominal exchange rate. At last, according to the research in this paper, Sector Two put forward some suggestion about exchange rate system of our country.