The Application Of Gray Model And Combined Model In The Analysis Of Securities

In this paper, we investigate the feasibility of Grey Model applied to security analysis, improve Grey Model, build compositional model and new security analysis method, namely equal-string form combination predicted method. In some extent, the preferable predictive validity of the long-term and short-term current of securities price is arrived.In Chapter 2, we improve the residual forecast Grey Model, by transformation of the primary data, the lubricity of data is improved and the forecast precision is raised.In Chapter 3, we introduce Artificial Neural Network (ANN) into security analysis, select the well-founded net structure and training parameter, andprogram. The predictive validity is good.In Chapter 4, we use the method of structural pattern recognition, build multistage sequence of equal-string form. By transforming and analyzing history data of stock market, examine the probability of payoff or loss. Based on that, a new analysis method of securities investment is established, namely Equal-String Form Combination predicted method. Its advantage is remedy lag and uncertainty of traditional analysis, adjust relevant parameter to consistent with the movement of market immediately, heighten success ratio of forecast, and recognized easily by computer.In Chapter 5, Because the data sequence has double characteristic of increasing and fluctuating, we put forward the combined grey neural network model, study the forecast problem of double nonlinear trend.Using several examples, we validate these method.