China's Stock Index Futures, The Risk Of Innovation, Research,

Chinese securities market has made great progress over the past twelve years, but great systemic risks have gradually emerged and become the dominant risk. After the incredible slumping, the stock index future is an indispensable internal need more than a deadly temptation. At the same time, CSRC (China Securities Regulation Commission) has progressed to develop the institution investors. Institution investors like insurance fund, different from common investors, have lots of capital to invest. So if they want to buy or sell a kind of stocks, the price of the stock may change a lot, leading to the crash of securities market. The increase of institution investors also presents the problem of how to avoid market risk. Moreover, because Chinese stock market is burgeoning, there must exist considerable speculating activities, which affects the normal function of security market such as resources distribution. All of these are eager to the birth of stock index future to realize the functional expansion and the further development of securities market. After China's entry into WTO, the securities market is destined to open up, which will strengthen the emergency of Stock index future innovation.However, is it possible for China to put forwards stock index future under the exiting economic conditions? Nowadays, the economic academic field has different answers to the above question. But there are few works elaborating on the question from potential risks. After a series of risk incidents broke out, such as the stock calamity in 1987 and the bankrupt of Bahrain Bank, there has been a large amount of research works focusing on the stock index future in the developed countries. But since there are enormous differences in establishment background, developing course and current situation of securities market of various countries, we can't totally imitate the experience in the risk control of stock index future of foreign countries.So, the foreign research results can only be the guiding theories. When making a concrete analysis on whether it is possible to put forwards stock index future in China and what risks stock index future will bring with, it is vital to consider the concrete conditions of the Chinese securities market. Therefore, the paper wants to plug the gap.Utilizing the concepts and some basic principles of institution and institution innovation in the institutional economics, the paper probes into the question adopting the Marxist basic analytical method, namely the internal logic system of "What", "Why", and "How", and combining the normative analysis with positive research.The paper breaks into four chapters.The first chapter, firstly explains the institution, institution transition and institution innovation and points out that stock index future is kind of institution and institution innovation from its content,characteristics and economic functions. Secondly, it illustrates the basic requirements of stock index future innovation and presents a typical example of Hai nan's stock index future test. Thirdly, it discusses the detailed conditions on the basis of Chinese actuality. The second chapter and the third one are the core and elite of the paper. The paper systematically analyzes the risks of stock index future from the angle of stock index future market and stock market. The second chapter reviews the basic theories of stock index future's risks. Basing on stock index future market, the second chapter firstly points out that the risks of stock index future exit objectively (The stock index future market centralizes the risks, which are shifted from the stock market but not eliminated.) and analyzes these risks' characteristics. Secondly, the chapter focuses on the origin causes of risks such as credit risk, operating risk and designing risk etc. Then, as far as our country is concerned, the chapter discusses the possible risks when we put forward stock index future. With eyes on stock market, the third chapter analyzes possible fund flow effect and price effe...