| After entering the WTO, China economy is merging with the global economy greatly, which not only offer China a more opening market, but also carries a lot of more severe challenges. Nowadays, the capital flows quickly, the information net is very convenient and the international competition is sharper. With the tendency of Finance Globalization becoming more and more obvious, the international capital flow has been more and more active. But we should not neglect that the capital flight harms the financial security of all the countries (especially the developing countries). In China, more and more capital flight has done harm to our economy. In order to remove the hidden peril, we must recognize the reason, the current situation and the controlling method of the capital flight, and then we can uphold the financial security of our country and promote the smooth development of China economy.After reading a lot of documents, the writer finds that there are so many new ideas about the reason of capital flight by foreign scholars, which are not used by domestic researchers yet. There is not any paper for researching the reasons and the process of capital flight in China specially, which used the development of theories, theoretical analyses and empirical analyses together. So this dissertation makes good use of the researching results of foreign scholars and concentrates on the reasons and process of China capital flight specially.The dissertation introduces the development of the theories about capital flight and studies several theories specially firstly, and on the base of the theories, it analyzes the reason of capital flight in China. And finally it puts forward some advice on policy. Following is the structure:Chapter One reviews the historical process of development of capital flight theory simply. Beginning with the theory about capital flight forsafety by Kindleberger(1937) in "International short-term capital movement", to Grubel's(1968) explaining Capital flight by Modern International Portfolio Theory, to many theories about capital flight in the 1980's,including: an asymmetric risk of expropriation by Khan and Haque(1985), Secret Money by Ingo(1985), and so on. Chapter Two studies a series of mechanisms of the capital flight focused on by many economists and explores the reasons of capital flight theoretically. First, based on portfolio considerations, the models include interest differentials, risk and secret of asset in explaining capital flight flows, which demonstrate that capital flight is just a result of choice in international portfolio. Then, it shows the process of diversification contributing to capital flight flows. Diversification of assets and the reducing of interrelation will lead to lower risk of portfolio, so people will choose to invest their asset internationally, and thus the international flow of asset happens. If government doesn't permit this flow, capital flight emerges. Next, this chapter uses the model of an asymmetric of tax and tax-like distortions to explain the capital flight: asymmetric of taxâ†'lower returns and additional risk to domestic financial and physical assetsâ†'capital flight. To study the reason of capital flight in China, Chapter three focuses on the fact of capital flight in China. It first makes the definition of capital flight in China, then develops a new measurement approach of capital flight, and summarizes conduits and vehicles engaged in capital flight.Chapter four uses the theories introduced in chapter two to explain the reasons of capital flight in China, including the interest rate, risk of exchange rate, deficit, inflation, risk of politics, requirement for secret, and regulation of foreign exchange. Then on the base of these analyses, this dissertation uses the data from 1982 to 1999 to prove the influence of those factors with empirical studies. The results not only prove that reasons really lead to capital flight in our country include China deficit[FIS(-1)], China inflation [INF(-1)], Chinese real effectiv... |
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