| Part I: In the market-oriented course of interest rate of countries all over the world, Interest rate change trend and macroeconomy environment, financial market environment, developed degree of market mechanism of various countries demonstrate greater inherent dependence, which is a common regularity characteristic. Except some countries of Latin America, interest rate market-oriented reform causes true rate of interest rising of competence generally, but the range of rising mainly depends on macroeconomy environment especially economic growth stability and financial capability. Generally developing countries are large in ascension more range than the developed countries. It is a common trend that interest rate market-oriented reform aggravates true rate of interest level fluctuate in a certain period. But generally, the steady macroeconomy environment has function of the stabilizing financial market, which can reduce the degree that the interest rate level fluctuate. In addition, comparing with the radical reform, the evolutionary reform help reduce interest rate fluctuate. So developed countries fluctuate more slightly than developing countries; developing countries Asia fluctuates more slightly than Latin American countries. After interest rate marketization, what is believed in theory that stock-in-trade profits dwindle would not be so obvious in practice obvious. Besides a few countries, there are certain enlargement trends in most countries instead, In general, stock-in-trade profit in developing countries is higher than that of developed countries.Part II: Based on summarizing interest rate reform including the market-oriented reform of the last few years, it is believed that up until now, the degree of the market-oriented reform of interest rate of our country is still relatively low generally: Interest rates like the interest rate of inter-banker lending and borrowing, monetary market bond buy-back interest rate, certificate trade interest rate, foreign currency loan interest rate, large volume foreign currency deposit interest rate, etc. have already completed marketization or basically completed it. RMB deposit and loan interest ratefloat block expands gradually, and progressively move towards marketization day byday.Part III: On the basis of using the experience and lessons of the change of interestrate in other countries for reference in course of the interest rate marketization, it is believed that there should be a course of raising up slightly in the interest rate in the early stage. But the market fluctuations it causes will not be too much; according to actual operation result and a medium or long term of the reform, foreign currency interest rate has already drawn close to international interest rate competence progressively; viewed from a short time, RMB loan interest rate total competence will tend towards dropping, some loan interest rate may rise; the interest rate of the deposit will raise up unilaterally. But in the long run, the total level of the RMB deposit and loan interest rate will tend towards rising. It is also believed that the whole world's interests dropping tide has no direct influence to the market-oriented process of interest rate of our country, but there is indirect influence: it will impel the State Council, Central Bank, Chinese banking association and other finance and economics authorities of our country to set plan" advance gradually according to the situation of the world, domestic economy financial situation, advance and appropriately accelerate market-oriented process of interest rate of our country, making our country's interest rate mechanism more flexible and play a bigger role in developing economy and finance;Part IV: The market-oriented reform of interest rate is a course of advancing gradually: the marketization degree of national debt market (currency market) interest rate is already quite abundant, but bank deposit interest rate of home currency has not decontrolled yet. Combining our country's structure characteristic and develop... |
PDF Full Text Request