Research, Technology Innovation Project Selection And Decision-making Method Based On Option Theory

In the management of the technology innovative projects, it is a very important process to make choice and decision of these projects, which can insure the success of these projects. Therefore, it has the very important real meaning and theoretic value to research the theory and method of choice and decision-making of the technology innovative projects.According to the optional character of the technology innovative projects' investment, the thesis has investigated the choice and decision-making of these projects systemically with the real option theory. The main points of this thesis are as follows: Firstly, it compares the similarity between real option of the technology innovative projects and option based on the summary of option pricing theory and systems analysis of these projects and their characters, which can be made as the theory and evidence of the real option approach to value these projects. Secondly, based on the synthesized analysis of these projects' option, it sets up three models to value the different real option respectively in these projects such as the delaying option, growing option and multiple option. It makes demonstration and comparing research comparatively as well. Thirdly, it extends and improves the option pricing model made by Pindyck and discusses the timetable and the best investing rules when individuals make choice and decision by use of the generalizing model. Fourthly, aiming at the difficulty that the quantitative model can't elude the organizing risk, it adds some qualitative factors in the model to make it more perfect.