| With the arrival of era of market economy, the economic life becomes more and more complicated, uncertainty is greater and greater and the competition is fiercer and fiercer, therefore the scientific investment decision has become a focal point of research field. With the change of mobile communication technology, the investments of mobile communication traders have become more and more uncertain. In order to consider and utilizes this kind of uncertainty, overcome the defect of the traditional investment decision tool, the method of investment decision on the basis of the real option begin to be favored by everybody. Meanwhile, the competition in the mobile communication market is becoming fiercer and fiercer too. Competition impels the state of mobile communication market to be more and more complicated, so the traders must consider more thoroughly of the investment decision. However, The time is urgent that the traders need to do the investment decision analyses. Thus those policymakers must analyze their rival, and consider the strategy of the rival abundantly. Therefore, in the investment decision of the mobile communication project, we must consider the real option and game thought at the same time on the basis of traditional method of investment decision based on net present value (NPV), and make them combine organically in order to make our investment decisions more scientific and rational.The option game model that This thesis has adopted is constructed on the theories of Dixit and Pindyck(1994),Trigeorgis(1996)and Lambrecht and Perraudin(1994,1996). The more important thing is that this model is applied to the investment decision practice about 3G project of Sichuan Province in this thesis. It not only proves the feasibility and validity of this kind of method in reality to some extent, playing a key role on the investment decisions of 3G project of Sichuan Province, and brings about an advance of this kind of method on the basis of option game. Such as: the combination of game thought and the model of the real option will be more closely; the problems still need to be studied and probed into further on the basis of analyses in this thesis that the econometrics research about this option game model is applied to the investment decision practice.This thesis is divided into five chapters. The structure and basic content of every chapter are as the following:Chapter One --Basic conceptThis chapter proceeds from the concept of option, real option, and oligopsony, explains the defects of traditional investment decision methods respectively and the importance in the real option of investment decision. Then, it discusses the shortage of most methods on basis of the real option. Finally, it analyses especially the structure of option game methods that remedy the defect of other methods on basis of the real option.In fact the option is a kind of right to choose. It endows the holder the rights of doing something. The holder may not exercise this right . Most real option methods have been proved extensively to play a key role in the analysis of investment decision. However, it also has some defects, such as: lack the consideration on the tactics basically, or not fully considering the strategic of other rivals.The game theory studies at tactics on confronting and competition with each other or how to choose countermeasure at different situations. In the market full of competition, we must use game theory while analyzing the investment decision. In the most realistic market, uncertainty, irreversibility and competitiveness exist at the same time, thus we must introduce the game method in the meanwhile of using the real option methods. That will make our analysis more rational effective especially in the market structure of oligopsony.The option game theory is one kind of theoretical method to appraise the project value that includes the real option. The thesis utilizes the thought and modeling method of game theory and makes the scientific decision of project... |
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