Fluctuations Of The Real Estate Cycle Theory And Empirical Research

The development of the real estate industry shows a phenomenon of periodic fluctuation. Analyzing the cycle of the real estate industry , not only has a creative significance in theory , but also can guide the development of real estate industry in practice.At present the study on the cycle of the real estate industry is still at the discussion stage. There are different opinions concerning the basic period of the real estate industry in China and the features of each period. There also exist much confusion on the internal and external factors that have influences on the cycle of the real estate industry and the mechanisms. In this paper I will discuss the above-mentioned important topics.I think the study of the cycle of real estate industry should provide the answers to these questions: (1) What is "the real estate industry's periodic fluctuations"? (2)Which factor has influence on the real estate industry's periodic fluctuations and how?(3) Is there "four or six years cycle" of the real estate industry in China? What are the basic periods of the real estate industry in China like? My study on the cycle of the real estate industry in this paper consists of four parts as follows:In the first part of this paper, I include and summarize and review the main opinions concerning the cycle of macro economy and the cycle of the real estate industry.In the second part of this paper, firstly I identify the concept of the cycle of the real estate industry and then I analyze the main factors that influence the cycle of the real estate industry and the mechanisms.I think the demand and supply and investment and the profit rate of the real estate industry are the critical internal factors of the cycle of the real estate industry. I put forward the "core conduct chain "for the very first time. After analyzing the external factors and the mechanism, I drew the shock and conduction picture.In the third part I make the empirical analysis on the cycle of Chinese real estate industry. I make use of for the very first time the floor space under construction and the other four indexes to get the compound index. According to the compound index I conclude that there are five periods during the development of the real estate industry in china.By the description about the development track of the real estate industry andthe analysis on the features of each period, I find that the period length is increasing and the fluctuation extent is decreasing. So for the first time I put forward the idea that we should prevent the negative effect of the wrong conclusion some specialist have made, which said the length of the real estate industry is four or six years.In the forth part I contrast the forth period with the fifth period, I think at present the real estate industry in China is still on its reasonable proper development stage. But there are some real estate bubbles in some area. Then I make the further analysis on the future of the real estate industry and the policy that promote the stabilization of the real estate industry in china.