The Studies Of Countermeasures And Decision-Making Of Real Estates Projects On The Basis Of Risk Analysis

After the reform and opening, the real estate industry has recovered and developed with the reform of the city housing and land using systems in China. In the early of 1990's, the real estate industry was listed as a pillar one in the national economy, but it was weakened because of the "real estate heat" and "Asia banking crisis" in 1992-1993. Since 1998, the housing industry has been cultivated as the consume heat point and the new economic growth point by the new government, and the real estate industry has been developed into the pillar one again as the part of the third industry. However, products and investments of the real estate have their peculiarity: the huge investment, the long payback period and the compound risks, etc. In order to lower the level of risk and enlarge the profit, the investors must emphasize the risk analysis and the optimization of investment decision. With the immature state of the real estate industry in China, the influence of the policy and macroscopic control of the government should be discussed. The dissertation studied many aspects on the basis of these purposes, and delivered the following results:1. The development of the real estate industry has its pattern-the real estate cycle. The dissertation firstly makes an analysis of real estate investors, the channel of raising money, investment structure, investment scales, and the growth style of the real estate in China during the 1993-2002, which includes a whole cycle.2. The relation between the real estate industry and the national economy was analyzed according to the scales, the contributions to GDP, and the leading influence of the real estate industry. Then the important position and effect of the real estate industry were pointed out. With reference to the "parabola"-the curve of investment scales of foreign countries and the state of China, developments and tendencies of real estate industry in China were analyzed and forecasted in the long period and short-term. In the long period, the service style musttake the place of the productive one; and the leading influence of real estate industry in the national economy is maintained in the future years. So now the increasing growth of the investment scale will be kept. The emphases of the questions are the blind investments and the structural disproportion. Macroscopically, every investor should pay attention to the risk assessment and optimize the decision-making.3. The natural, political, societal, economic, technologic, and national risks of real estate were distinguished systematically in the theoretical and practical methods. Combined with the interaction and the consequences of these risk sources, these risk sources were rank ordered according to the risk priority and the maximum creditable risk source. Then the risk checklist was created.4. Breakeven Point and Sensitivity analysis were revised to make the risk evaluation properly and scientifically. The evaluations of the probability analysis of random risks were analyzed in the way of the theoretical probability and Monte Carlo simulation. And the application of gray prediction can make up the lack of data.5. For the risk assessment of the real estate investment, the fuzzy math and the gray cluster were applied to reduce the influence of the subjective factors in the risk measurement. Then how to compile the risk assessment report of real estate projects, as a transition of the practice of risk management, was given out for the real estate investors.6. The definite, random, and indefinite investment decisions of real estate were quantified and optimized on the basis of the risk analysis. At first the AHP model on the risk assessments and its convenient calculation, the multiple objectives decision-making model of entropy weight, the multiple objectives planning, the NPV investment model of risk degree were established in the paper and applied to the practice. With reference to the option in the banking, the applications of real option were probed. Through the behavior analysis of the investment decision-making, the utilit...