| (一)There is a growth cycle in any enterprise, since born it faces the death, and competition seems to aggravate this course day by day. Seen from domestic situation, it makes the existence of enterprise becomes more difficult because of company reform and WTO. It brings the unprecedented market demand for financial distress predited by many enterprise administrators, government and investors.Enterprise's risk is that uncertain factors lead to the fact that enterprise deviates from expectancy by income. The behavior of enterprise's risk takes many forms, and any form will show as the financial affairs of enterprise fluctuation, and will reflect in the financial statement frequently. So the author thinks that the financial risk is the essential risk of an enterprise, and enterprise's risk will be investigated from the financial angle in this thesis .The risk can be favorable incident or be unfavorable incident that goes beyond the anticipation. People always pay more attention to accidental loss than unexpected income. It becomes the financial crisis when the financial risk is shown as an accidental loss.From the angle of the empirical research, domestic researchers generally regard Special Treatment (ST) as the sign of the financial crisis. This train of thought has been drawn from the studies that defines the financial distress to be bankrupt, and has simplified the intension of the crisis, and give the sample obvious sign. Furthermore, domestic research regard non-ST enterprise as the safe enterprise sample and mix non-ST enterprise with ST enterprise generally. The author thinks this is fuzzy to the meaning of distress. Throughout, any enterprise is not in the definitely safe steps, and the financial distress will accompany the whole life of the enterprise. ST means that the financial distress of the enterprise reaches a certain serious degree, but non-ST enterprise faces the financial distress in varying degrees in fact, Regard it as definitely safe enterprise sample does not accord with the real mean of distress. This thesis plans to improve this, It is a sample enterprise of a serious distress of the financial affairs to define ST enterprise, and cooperate with the slight crisis and sane enterprise sample of financial affairs to study.(二)From single variable model of Beaver, researchers try to get improvement of the variable, sample and model constantly, improving the case study and predicting technology of financial distress, and has made several breakthroughs in research in this field .In order to improve the qualify of variables, researchers have tried to join the cash flow index, Audit suggestion, industry relative rate, non-financial factors from the macroscopic and micro perspectives and rate of increase index to the model. From the angle of sample, researchers have found and verified the existence of choosing- prejudice in sample, and try to adopt the single trade sample to dispels this question and predict the over-evaluating of precision to the models .From the angel of model, after the single variable model of Beaver and linear multivariate classify models of Altman, Bayes classify, logistic regression, stepwise regression, probit model, ESRA , and neural network methods are introduced into this field. Researchers still try to compare various kinds of prediction methods, and have enriched the financial content of predicting model greatly .In addition, in studying the design, a lot of researchers have given up classifying the sample to two groups and design to classify the sample into three or more groups according to characteristics of financial distress, and give the intension with more multi-level financial implication.Domestic financial distress research began with the latter part of the 1990s, most of the research results are borrowed from foreign model and the researchers analyse their adaptability at home. From the overall research standard, The author thinks there are several defects, such as: financial distress confused concept, and assumption that en... |
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