Study Of China's Listed Companies' Financial Early-warning Monitoring System

In 1997 the regional financial crisis broke out in the area of Southeast Asia, and developed into the most serious international economic crisis over the past 50 years. In recent years, the amount of bankruptcy case is much higher than that of the new established enterprise and a lot of conglomerates fall into crisis in the whole world. The bankruptcy of ENRON made the financial situation of listed company more serious. After being shocked, people begin to probe into the origin of the crisis. The one important reason is that the enterprise lacks effective financial monitoring and early-warning mechanism. After China entered into WTO, the listed companies are now facing both opportunity and challenge. Therefore, it's urgent for companies to be safe in the fierce market competition. The financial early- warning system is the mechanism that makes investors and administrators of companies discover the signal of financial failure in advance. So, it is very urgent and necessary to research on the monitoring system of financial early-warning of listed companies of our country.The thesis can be divided into four chapters: Chapter 1 introduces the basic theories of the financial early-warning system of listed company. Section 1 defines the concept of the financial early-warning system of listed companies and thinks that the essence of the financial early-warning system is a kind of guarantee mechanism to keep financing activities operating safely. Section 2 discusses the necessity and feasibility of the construction of the financial early-warning system of listed company from theoretical and practical angle. It aims to support the construction of the monitoring system of financial early-warning. Section 3 demonstrates the work process of financial early-warning system and explains the components of it. By analyzing the relationship of the components, the author thinks that the monitoring system of financial early-warning is a key part. So this thesis will carry on further investigation on this system and try to construct the financial early-warning monitoring system that suits the listed companies of our country.Chapter 2 takes an overview of the relevant researches that have been made in our country and western countries.Section 1 introduces the qualitative financial early-warning techniques. The qualitative methods of financial early-warning include the standardized investigation method, four periods of symptoms, three months fund turnover form , the fund-flow chart analysis, A billiard maker method and etc. Section 2 introduces the quantitative financial early-warning techniques. The quantitative methods of financial early-warning include the univariate model and the multivariate model. The multivariate model additionally can be classified into five subsidiary model such as MDA, Logistic regression model, Probit regression model, ANN and etc. Chapter 3 is the most important part of this thesis, in which the author tries to establish our own monitoring system of financial early-warning. The author divides this system into two sub-systems composed of the monitoring executive system of financial early-warning and the monitoring analysis system of financial early-warning. And the monitoring analysis system of financial early-warning can also be divided into two systems composed of the fundamental monitoring analysis system of financial early-warning and the financial index monitoring analysis system.Section 1 discusses the construction of the monitoring executive system of financial early-warning,which includes establishment of the organization of the monitoring system of financial early-warning and the implementation of the monitoring work of financial early-warning Section 2 discusses the analysis system of financial early-warning, which departed into the construction of the fundamental monitoring analysis system of financial early-warning and the construction of financial index monitoring analysis system of financial early-warning.Firstly the author discusses the construction of...