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Rmb Equilibrium Exchange Rate From 1994 To 2003, Empirical Research

Posted on:2005-10-21Degree:MasterType:Thesis
Country:ChinaCandidate:S ZhangFull Text:PDF
GTID:2206360122994086Subject:Finance
Abstract/Summary:PDF Full Text Request
With the expansion of Chinese economic scope and increasingly external dependence, exchange rate has become the crucial external economic benchmark and its role has been strengthened gradually. Meanwhile, domestic exchange rate study has been deeply researched.This paper reviews the varieties of exchange rate determination theories, on the basis of which quantitatively analyzes nominal exchange rate(NER), nominal effective exchange rate(NEER) and natural real effective exchange rate(NATREX) of RMB during the period from 1994 to 2003. It also compares and researches the impact from exchange rate volatility on the import, export and other domestic economic variables. A theoretical model was built to compute the equilibrium exchange rate of RMB.The equilibrium exchange rate is computed through the empirical studies according to recent 10 years' data based upon the model. Furthermore, the paper also analyzes the equilibrium exchange rate's deviation from the NER, REER and NATREX, and its impact on the macro economy. Finally, the paper offers a policy suggestion about managing the RMB equilibrium exchange rate target zone by taking the equilibrium exchange rate as the backbone value.The highlight of the paper lies in using foreign and domestic equlibrium exchange rate theories as reference to build Chinese RMB equilibrium exchange rate model. In addition, this paper adopts the latest data from 1994 to 2003.It is during this decade that China's exchange rate regime is stepping into stability.It's with great significance to study this period for both retrospection and guidance.Besides, monthly data are used in this paper, which is helpful to improve the accuracy of the empirical study.
Keywords/Search Tags:Real Effective Exchange Rate, Equilibrium Exchange Rate, Management of Exchange Rate Target Zone, RMB
PDF Full Text Request
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