China's Stock Market Bubble Study

From the observation of development history of the stock market, we learn that the bubble has been forming and bursting incessantly since the stock market was built up. The phenomenon has influenced the development of economy and society seriously. And all the previous ripples of the stock market tell us that the stock bubble in the stock market has become an unslighting problem.Chapter 1 introduces the background and retrospects the related results domestically and overseas.Chapter 2 analyses the mechanism of formation and elicits the reasons of formation and harms that the stock bubble takes.In Chapter 3, some familiar quantitive indexes are introduced combing the facts of Chinese stock markets.The emphasis is in Chapter 4. On the basis of the facts of stock markets, a bubble model is constructed to measure some certain stocks in Shanghai 30 index and the levels of the two stock markets, Shanhai and Shenzhen.In Chapter 5, the author puts forward the advice on preventing the stock bubble on the macroscopical and microcosmic lays, combing the analysis of the macroscopical-economics variable and price of stock.At present, most of the results of studying the stock bubble domestically and overseas are from the point of view of the academic research, but I do it from the demonstration analysis. In my paper, some measurement models and verification methods of the stock bubble are presented; in addition, based on the facts in China, my measurement model is elicited through the capital-assets pricing model and pricing by value-earning ratio. In succession, the paper measures the bubble level of the two Chinese stock markets, Shanghai and Shenzhen, draws some interesting conclusions. It has some realistic significance and reference value in terms of eliminating and controlling the risks in the Chinese stock market.