Research On The Bubble Of Chinese Stock Market

Stock market foam means the stock price exceeds the standard supported by its inside value and the uncontinuous increase of stock price is not brought by the real value and the basic information, which reflects the speculation on the stock market.Karl Marx expatiated the basic theory of the dummy capital. He opened out the meaning of dummy capital and forming mechanism of bubble to help us to look on the stock market' bubble by analyzing the running characteristic of dummy capital main delegated by stock. By setting stock price model western economists educe how market information, validity and the market participant's activity affect the stock price. Then surrounding the relation between the three they anglicize how the foam in the valid market hypothesis form. The asymmetry of market information and "flock effect" caused by stock market participants' irrational activity arose the speculation foam on stock market. While finance yawp theory says because of the existence of the traders who have the yawp signal as their foundation, rational traders will face dual risk, namely the basic risk and the risk brought by yawp traders themselve. The theory also says the yawp traders finally will lead the whole market and make the market efficiency disappear, which will lead the transform from rational foam to irrational foam.Stock price asks for higher requirement of investors on information and reasonable expectation, which is essential to setting information pricing system. While whether viewed from market change, standardization or from socialization the flaw of our country's stock market is remarkable. In such a new and immature stock market, the activities of investors always bear remarkable game character. Study such activities you will find the micro mechanism, which has brought the foam of the stock market. And in the form of the stock market foam, the activity of the bankers can't be ignored. The relationship between bankers and stock is a unique phenomenon of our country. Holding a large proportion, the current stockhas prevented the stockers who hold the current stock to participate in controlling the corporation. So instead of caring the corporation 's achievements and its long-run development, they would only care about the exchange of their shares to make profit from the price difference, therefore the foam from speculation will be blew bigger and bigger.Since opening, our country's stock market has gone through six large fluctuations, which have aroused the attention and study of a large number of economists. All sorts of studies indicate that our stock market is in a course of transition from an invalid market to a little valid market. Because the corporations on the stock market don't have good quality, it is difficult for the investors to hold shares for long-term invest. And the speculation is remarkable. Usually we use market profit rate to measure the extent of foaming. According to the difference of calculating method, the standard suitable for foreign country may not be suitable for our country. However use the market profit rate brought by the unreal reveals of information to measure the foam, you will find the real foam.The foam on stock market can exist within some range. But the foam on the stock market will change into foam economy, which will bring adverse influence to macro economy, market efficiency and social ethos. So we should chose related policies and countermeasure to well manage it. Use monetary policy and finance tools to reduce the risk on stock market and improve its function of resource梔istributed of stock market. Setting valid company managing frame and perfect market system to improve the quality of the company on the stock market, forming the solid basis of stock market, again raising credit construction and strengthening supervising when the Chinese stock market is being struck by credit crisis are necessary choices. Constitute a better circumstance.