Xinjiang Oilfield Company, Oil And Gas Operating Cost Prediction Methods

The history of development in Xingjian Oil Field Branch Company has reached half a century. The output of crude oil of it has already topped high point of 10 million tons. In recent years, with the increment of containing water and the decline of oil-gas ratio in thick oil, the efficient control on operation cost of oil and gas is becoming more and more difficult .In order to reach joint-stock company's goal of cutting down operation cost of oil and gas and reduce it rationally and effectively, it is necessary to predict it and control it.Combining the condition of production and operation in the oil field, the paper first analyze the historical data in detail on the basis of classifying operation cost of Xingjian oil field branch company; then, according to the distribution characteristic and regularity of the historical data, the paper adopt regress model to predict basic operation cost, the fees of dealing with oil and gas, and the fees of increasing production, driving oil fee, the fee to exploit thick oil hotly and basic regular fee etc.Because the concept of operating cost is put forward in a short period of a few years, if we predict with the regression model for the shortage of the historical data in reality, the result will not be very ideal. So I select grey prediction model to predict. Through the prediction of operation cost of per BOE of thick and light oil from the oil field branch company of Xingjian, we prove that the predicting number value is relatively reliable no matter when the precision of thick and light oil meets the need.