International Hot Money Of Rmb Exchange Rate Analysis

Since 2002, the appreciation of RMB has become the international focus. In this thesis, I choose the impact of international hot money on the exchange rate of RMB as my research theme.First, I expound the development process and speculation means of the international hot money. Then using model of money speculation, I analyze the destructive impact of the international hot money in the Southeast Asian Financial Crisis and get the following conclusion. Generally speaking, the target nations of international hot money have unbalanced economic structure and unsound financial institution. During the attack, the target nations failed to seize the optimal occasion to take effective measures. They lost the game with the international hot money eventually.At present, with the support of political power, the international hot money speculates in RMB and RMB assets. Their assumption is China's imbalanced economic structure. In fact, China's economy is sound on the whole and the imbalance offers only small space for speculation. Free conversion on capital account is not implemented. Chinese government has effective macro-control capability of its economy. Considering these facts, I draw the conclusion that the speculation of international hot money in RMB and RMB assets is limited.