China's Implicit Pension Debt Compensation Channel Research

Like most countries, China faces a rapidly aging population. In fact, China is aging more rapidly than any other country. The increase of the population makes the scale of the Implicit Pension Debt enlarged quickly. So it is necessary to reform that to transfer pay-as-you-go to private fund plan. However, the Implicit Pension Debt embarrasses the reform. It is very important to find a way solve the Implicit Pension Debt in the theory.In part one, the dissertation explains the theory basis of the old-age insurance and three kinds of collecting fund mode.According to the theory of the old-age insurance, part two introduces the foundation and the reforms way in china, analyzes the policies shortage. Analyze the implicit pension debt form and the solve dilemma.In part 3, the dissertation analyzes the compensate modes feasibility that through the insides index and outsides channel to compensate the Implicit Pension debt.Because average pay amount don't include added pay, and the annuities substitute-rates adjustment confuses. Reducing the substituting rate of the pension can't become the method to compensate the implicit pension debt. The reducing of the supporting rate can pass the method to improve retirement age. Because the rate of paying of enterprises of our country has been all the time very high, and from the point of view of finance, it either reduces the tax revenues to improve the rate of paying, or increase the administrative expenditure. Improving the pay rate is unsuitable to implement. Expanding the coverage rate of the old-age insurance may increase old-age insurance incomes, but lose the fairly.Outside the system of the old-age insurance, the main methods of solving the Implicit Pension Debt have realizing state-run assets, adjusting expenditure structure of finance, levying old-age insurance tax and issuing approval bond.There are three kinds of methods to realize the state-run assets, such as selling state-run assets, abating state-owned stocks and transferring state-owned stock. The difficulties in selling state-run assets lie in: the authenticity of the value of the assets, themechanism of the fixed price and the accepter of state-owned stock transferred.Through reducing the expenditure of the finance in the general competition field, compressing the administration expenditure, improving financial benefit of use funds and defining limitation of expenditure of financial fun between central authorities and local government comes expenditure structure to change financial fund rationally, thus achieve the goal of compensating.Levying new tax to compensate the implicit pension debt of the old-age insurance doesn't possess feasibility. First, in our country the index of macroscopically burden of taxation of the heavy-caliber has been already very high; Second, the burden of taxation between domestic-investment and overseas-funded enterprises is unreasonable; Third, levying the new tax category, how should the division of the tax revenue between central authorities and local government is not clear; Fourth, levying the new tax will lose justice between generations; The fifth, the old-age insurance fee still has the nature of allocating a fund for its specified purpose after being changing into tax.Adding up government dominance debt and various kinds of implicit debt, it is so obvious that the debt burden of our government is serious that the possibility of issuing debts to compensate implicit pension debt is tiny.The income of lottery tickets is thought it is a feasible method to compensate the implicit pension debt, but only because of its strong contingency, its great uncertainty, so the one that issued lottery tickets can grant the method in compensation for the temporary one, but not a long-term plan.Through analyzing, the dissertation puts forward the corresponding suggestions in the end.