Never Certainty To The Structural Role

This thesis aims to introduce the analysis of uncertainty into international relations. The thesis points out the weakness of anarchy and hypothesis of complexity, as well as introduces the concept of uncertainty as the premise of international relation's analysis. The thesis divides uncertainty into three classes: that based on occurrence, based on result and based on uncertainty of probability and analyzes their appearance. Then the thesis discusses both countable and uncountable uncertainty and analyzes the origin of uncertainty from the interaction of uncertainty, dependence, consciousness and creativity. The thesis also points out the certain direction and significance of uncertainty as the basis of further theoretical analysis.The thesis mainly puts forward and analyzes three methods that lead to certainty from uncertainty: causality, statistic balance and structural function. This thesis discusses the goal of the theory of causality and limitation of the certain quest. The theory of causality, either the quest of pure reason or the quest of several reasons can not fulfill the goal of certainty, so does the realist of causality, because they don't find the circumscription. Most traditional international theoretical analysis adapts this method. This thesis divides the theory of statistic balance into two schools: theory of statistic and theory of balance. The theory assumes that same thing acts similarly and demonstrates the substantiality of genus. The theory of statistic balance assumes that same thing acts differently and demonstrates the certainty of balance. The structural realism in International Relations adapts this method, as well as some other international relation theories. All these theories can not fulfill the goal of certainty. This thesis points out structural function, based on the interaction of different things, thus involves the above two theories in the area of structural function and fulfills the goal of ultimate certainty.This thesis mainly adapts the Piaget's concept of structure and analyzes the certain goal of structure based on self- sufficiency.