| The extension of low fertility rate and life expectancy, lead to the world’s population aging level rising, more and more countries began to face a series of problems brought by aging population. An aging population caused great influence to a country’s economy and society, it not only increases the burden of a country’s endowment, but also increased the health spending. As the aging degree is deep,it will bring a lot of pension financial crisis. An aging population will be a common challenge which we would face.Since the1990s, with the rapidly spread of the international capital market and financial market liberalization, there are often international capital flows, economic globalization has led to capital flows between countries, it will have a major impact on a country’s economy, therefore, we study the effect of population aging on capital flows mechanism, and driving force of the understanding in international capital flow and flow direction, to help alleviate the economic problem under the trend of population aging, thus to guide the flow of capital reasonably, make full use of the flow of capital in different countries to cope with the aging problem. The current studies on the influence factors of capital flows are mainly concentrated on short-term factors, insufficient research on its long-term impact factors. In this paper, based on these two aspects reasons, further study on the long-term factors, demographic factors impact on the international movement of capital.Established a theory of life cycle hypothesis according to the1950-s, due to the limited life, people in life will arrange their savings, consumption and investment behavior, to make them in various stages of the consumption level is relatively stable in life. So the population age structure will affect a family’s savings and consumption behavior, if the individual household savings behavior rise to a country, that means, the congress because of the change of population age structure change makes the savings and investment structure, relative changes in the savings and investment can be adjusted in international capital flows.In this paper, based on the life cycle theory, from two aspects of capital market and labor market research,study the influence of population factors on the international capital flow mechanism. On the one hand, life cycle theory and investment theory, risk theory as the basis to study the influence of population aging on capital flows, on the other hand.the labor supply and labor productivity, in turn, have an impact on capital flows.In the case of global economic integration, capital flows between the United States and China have a major impact on the development of global economy, to a certain degree decide the direction of capital flows and scale. Due to the aging process of the United States and China info, has certain representativeness, so in this article to set up a two times of inter-temporal iterative model, the two countries are enter the aging society,the results show that compared with rapid aging country, slowly into the aging country returns on capital will be higher.therefore, in order to pursue the higher returns on capital, capital are flowing from an aging population of fast countries into the city of slowly countries, in a fixed period, the U.S. state of capital mainly to net outflows, China’s main show net inflows state.According to China’s capital and financial account, our country has been in a current account surplus, the state capital inflows, and the theoretical model to simulate the gap to a certain extent, the causes of the gap are:1. Aging population slow process of demographic transition, because our country is in the midst of the demographic dividend period and early aging, the abundant labor and capital contributed to the rapid growth of economy in our country, into the early stage of aging society also can enjoy the welfare of the population dividend, thus has a certain time lag.2. Short-term capital flows and related policies for the free flow of capital in our country is not perfect also led to the gap. However, these conditions will not affect study and results in this paper. The theory analysis and model simulation suggests that an aging population influencing the savings, investments, Labor costs in the end affect long-term international capital flows, the aging degree of differences lead to the flow of capital problems at the same time, the aging degree of fast capital flows to slowly aging population in the world. According to the above theoretical and empirical simulation,then put forward the relevant countermeasures and Suggestions from the perspective of financial market, labor market and government. |
