The Economic Analysis Of Population Aging On Economic Growth

Population aging has become a global issue, it is the inevitable trend of development of human society, and it is also the inevitable result of improved productivity levels. In the21th Century,both in the developed countries which including Japan,France,the US and so on and the developing countries such as China,and Cuba,are facing with the population aging impact on the economic growth and social development. In this paper,based on the current situation of China,the characteristics are the old population cardinal number is large,fast growth rate of elders,and the clearing of aging trend.From both the theoretical and empirical to analysis the impact of population aging on labor cost,labor productivity and labor participation rate,savings rate,and the accumulation of hunan capital and the other economic growth factors.The first part describes research background and significance,as well as some related concepts and policies,and then a brief introduction of using research ideas and methods in this paper.According to the present development condition of the world economy shows that the effecs of population aging on economic growth is the inevitable trend in economic development The second part mainly for demographic change and economic growth theory,including Modiliani’s life-cycle theory,the Solow growth model and the new growth theory which represented by Romer and Lucas.The five elements analysis by Dension,and summarizes abroad on research of the impact on population aging to the economic growth.The third part is from the theoretical analysis of population aging on the labor market,the saving rate and the accumulation of human capital.lt can be summarized as the de gree of population aging makes the labor costs rising and the labor productivity decline,and the saving rate decrease,but its impact on the human capital is uncertain.The opinions about it by schools are not uniformed.The fourth part is making the saving rate,labor force participation rate and human capital accumulation as a measure of economic growth factors,and then from the empirical analysis the impact of population aging on ecomomic growth.According to the National Statistics data analysis,conclude that the impact of aging of population age structure on the saving rate is positive.That is the elderly dependency ratio rising with the per capita savings rate rise,which is contrary to theoretical analysis.This is mainly because of China’s demographic dividend still exists,namely the working age population is still growing.The influence on China’s labor force participation rate is mainly through the contrast with China and the developed countries such as the US,Bratain,France,Germany,Japan,South Korea,and the developing country like India. Data show that China is moving to the population aging countries, but the current labor force participation rate is still at a high level.From a macro perspective,the current labor market is still in a state of oversupply,mainly because of China’s demographic dividend period may not yet ended,as well as some of our social system and citizens’ living conditions.For the effects of population aging on human capital accumulation is based on the measurement of total human capital by Professor Wang Lin,we can conclude that the aging of population age structure makes the human capital stock gradually decline.Finally,according to the theoretical and empirical analysis,put forward the countermeasures to deal with an aging population effect on economic growth.Firstly,describe and analysis the policy of aging population which adopted by the foreign developed countries. Secondly,put forward the corresponding policy based on the situation of our country,mainly summarized as increasing the investment of human capital,maintain the competitive advantage of labor resources.Thirdly,speed up the transformation of economic growth mode, to adapt to changes in the age structure of population.Forthly,encourage social investment for the pension industry,which will satisfy the diverse pension and restructuring.Fifthly,improve the social pension system.Last but not least,take reasonable population policy,slow down aging on the pressure of social economic development.