| Natural gas is a kind of clean and environmentally friendly energy with high calorific value and stable burning, which carries great importance for resorting the global greenhouse effect and haze pollution reduction. And it is widely used for power generation and civil use, and used as automobile fuel and petrochemical raw materials, etc. Currently, the consumption of natural gas of China grows rapidly. However, subject to the lack of self-sufficiency in natural gas, we have to import large quantities of pipeline gases and liquefied natural gases to meet the demand. The degree of dependency on foreign gas in 2014 has exceeded 30% and may increase year by year. To meet the growing demand, we must have a stable supply. We should also be prepared to explore unconventional shale gas on a larger scale in addition to increasing the supply of domestic natural gas. Meanwhile, we should expand the sources of import natural gas, diversify the natural gas supply channels and make them more flexible. In the long term, speeding up the cooperation with the United States and African countries is very strategic. China’s natural gas market development is not perfect, and the pricing model requires improving. The price of China’s imported LNG is linked to JCC crude oil price and domestic gas pricing uses the market value of the net back method. On the one hand, the former is high because of oil prices, the latter due to hook alternative energy and is still not perfect, the internal and external imbalance and lead to gas price of imported LNG purchasing prices; On the other hand, natural gases are mainly traded on long-term contracts, which is mechanical to the external changes. So a reform of the natural gas market in China is imperative. In reference to gas price formation mechanisms in other countries, China requires evolution rather than revolution in natural gas price reform due to some special factors.The paper abstracts the imported liquefied natural gas (LNG) from the pricing mechanism of natural gas market, and analyzes the imported LNG pricing model, and points out the relationship between the import gas and domestic gas. The imported LNG ought to play a complementary role to natural gas consumption in domestic market and make up an important part in order to promote the domestic natural gas market develop healthily. This paper firstly describes the development of China’s natural gas market reform and the progress in natural gas pricing model evolution, including the management mode of natural gas market, the current natural gas price reform, and analyzes the present situation of imported liquefied natural gas market and the domestic and international research results in depth; secondly we analyze foreign liquefied natural gas market and its development and the price formation mechanism with comparative analysis method. American and Japanese pricing models of natural gas market have great inspiration to China’s imported liquefied natural gas price reform: The price of imported LNG can be tied to Japan JCC on an early stage, then transits to linkage with crude oil of our country comprehensive price index CCC. Establish the natural gas trading center and form our own natural gas benchmark prices for the CH, making the imported gas price linked with CH in the future. Then, this paper deploys econometric analysis software eviews7.2 to analyze the imported gas price and international crude oil price of LNG in China with monthly data from 2006-2014.We establish a linear regression equation and dynamic PDL multiple distributed lag model using least square method. Through empirical analysis on the date from 2006 to 2014, LNG import price and international crude oil price show good linear relationship. This also verifies the fact that currently the price of China’s imported gas are linked with the international crude oil or oil, and proves the feasibility of linking the imported liquefied natural gas price with the Japanese JCC. However, the empirical analysis of the data during 2012-2014 shows that the LNG value and the crude oil prices already deviate with each other, and the deviation expands considerably, which implies that when signing import LNG contracts, we also should consider the progressively weakening link with crude oil, and form the pricing mode of natural gas with spot price. Finally, this paper proposes that the upstream, midstream and downstream of liquefied natural gas market can integrate together through LNG CIF, gate price and end user price linkage mechanism and that China’s pipeline gas can also establish the price linkage mechanism with inlet gas, reducing the price gap between inlet gas and domestic gas.Based on the empirical study and theoretical analysis, our suggestions are as follows:the development of natural gas market in China should follow the market law of value, take full account of the relationship between market supply and demand. It is necessary to consider the establishment of natural gas trading center, which can lead to the linkage with imported natural gas prices and gas prices in Asia Pacific region. Pushing the formation of natural gas pricing mechanism to reflect supply and demand is of equal importance, and straighten out the relationship between imported gas and domestic gas, and crack LNG purchasing prices problem eventually; we also need to improve the efficiency of consuming the existing natural gas by reducing waste, and allocate rationally, utilize natural gas resources in different gas sources. All above contribute to leading our natural gas market to a healthier and steadier one. |
PDF Full Text Request