System Dynamics Analysis On The Relationship Between Human Capital And Economic Growth In China 's Provinces

As human capital plays a role as important as the material capital in economic growth, its relationship with economic growth is very complex. After the reform and opening up, China’s long-term economic growth mainly driven by the high strength material capital investment, but this condition cannot be sustained. At present, our country macro-economic downward trend is obvious. Therefore, how to from relying on simple physical capital to pay more attention to rely on human capital, so as to provide continuous power for economic growth, in addition to maintain steady growth of economy under the "new normal", it will be a breakthrough to across the "middle-income trap" bottleneck of economic development in China, a powerful guarantee to maintain the healthy development of the long-term economy. Deeply for this reason, in view of system point to view of our country, the relationship between human capital and economic growth has important theoretical and practical value.Firstly, reviews the related literature in the study of relationship between human capital and economic growth and find the starting point of the article, at the same time introduces the origin of system dynamics method and summarizes on the basis of its action paradigm. Secondly, determine the boundary of the system, work out the human capital and economic growth subsystem contains each of the relevant variables, then build the causal loop diagram of the human capital and economic growth system, and the qualitative analysis of the circuit, the two systems of interaction between human capital and economic growth begin a preliminary probe into the theory of causation. Thirdly, as the foundation of the data of variables in the two system in 31 years(1982-2012), constructs the system dynamics model of relationship between human capital and economic growth, the direction of the quantitative analysis of the interaction between the two systems, the intensity and the transmission path and so on. Finally, in the test to the model, empirical analysis the difference in the growth path, the key variables and the role of human capital, in order to better improve the level of the human capital, which, in turn, provide reference to promote economic growth.This paper shows that there is interaction between economic growth and human capital relations of systemic power transmission. In general, the influence degree of the economic growth in various provinces and regions in human capital have bigger difference, from the east, tends to weaken; the influence of northeast region is relatively stable; whereas, the influence of the middle and the west is very complex and different between the provinces.