Study On The Optimal Scale Of China 's Foreign Exchange Reserve From The Perspective Of B - G Model

In the 21 st century, the scale of China’s foreign exchange reserves has been growing rapidly, becoming the first big foreign exchange reserves. The growth of foreign exchange reserve is the symbol of China’s growing economic power, and the level of opening to the outside world. Overall, the expansion of foreign exchange reserves increase the risk resistance capacity of China’s economy. However, economic macro-control, the central bank assets and liabilities risk management, the management of foreign exchange reserves, hold foreign exchange cost, etc. Facing new challenges. The international monetary fund thinks, but because of the triffin dilemma, the excessive foreign exchange reserves in the world can lead to global economic imbalances; At the same time threatened the stability of the international monetary system. In 2009, the international monetary fund and the finance committee ordered its members to reduce the accumulation of foreign exchange, reduce foreign exchange reserve requirements.Being integrated into the world economy, the best way for China to fight deflation is RMB active depreciation- the central bank is a huge amount of foreign exchange reserves on the strategy of making RMB exchange rate stability, but is by no means a loss of exchange rate policy initiative pretext or encumbrance. Capital outflows, RMB devaluation pressure, foreign exchange reserves decrease, become the most pressing economic problems. To this end, all kinds of countermeasures and Suggestions, even enthusiasm to advise on foreign investment Banks and politicians.In this paper, based on the theory of the optimal foreign exchange reserves, to conduct a comprehensive analysis of relevant theory and comprehensive dynamic, the traditional currency theory associated with social phenomenon; Selection of China’s foreign exchange reserve scale since 2002, GDP, foreign direct investment, balance of external debt, the deficit ratio of GDP, interest rate as an index, with "B- G" model as the theoretical model, using the H- P filter, the ARCH model and cointegration ARDL test methods for empirical research, the estimated cost of default, the probability of default, it is concluded that the optimal size of China’s foreign exchange reserves, to avoid the debt risk and maintaining economic security, make up and perfect the foreign exchange management measures to provide policy recommendations.