Evaluation Of Regional Industrial Vulnerability Based On Complex Network Theory

At present, many regional economic fragility reflected in industrial systems, such as the US financial industry crisis of 2008 triggered a global economic crisis, the structural imbalances, China steel industry has brought new challenges to regional economic development while it continues to overproduce when the demand is slack In the process of economic development, the safe development of important industry is the guarantee of region’s sustainable development. The research of economic fragility is a hot spot of global environmental change and sustainable science areas. The study of regional industry fragility has practical significance for predicting possible future changes, comprehensive improvement of regional economic system fragility and preventing the crises from happening.As the most complicated subsystem in the national economic system, the regional industrial system will need the comprehensive complex system theory and macroeconomic quantitative analysis for overall planning. To study the characteristics of the industrial production systems and analyze the structure and fragility of topology network with the idea of complex network theory.First of all,analyze economics characteristics of the regional production system,use input-output theory to build industrial complex network topology model by abstract set of nodes,the frontier set and right side set. Then figure out the degree of the network, clustering coefficient, the shortest path length, nodes betweenness, edges betweenness and other statistics with the software Ucinet and Gephi. Analyze the topological characteristics of the network and verify its small-world property and scaleless property.Secondly, analyze the fragility of industrial complex networks in the aspect of topology, do the simulation analysis with two failure mode of random attacks and deliberate attacks respectively, define different attacks by nodes and edges:random attack.To indentify the fragile nodes and lines through the changes of overall efficiency of the network. To analyze the complex network characteristics is to better understand the industrial production systems, to lay the foundation for the functional analysis. The purpose of fragility assessment is to identify the critical nodes and core path, to prevent the occurrence and spread of risk, and finally to improve the efficiency of the industrial system, to guarantee the national economy to grow sustainably, stably and healthily.