A Study On Spillover Effect Of Infringement Risk On Regional Infection

With the deepening of economic globalization and financial integration, the change of financing structure and financing channels of the listed company, social bad assets increased dramatically, which eventually lead to the increasing of default risk contagion probability, and the risk of default contagion could lead to a massive credit risk of default, causing serious financial crisis. In recent years the study of risk of default contagion continues to increase and the current study of credit risk of default contagion is also quite mature. but most of them study the contagion between the industry and ignore the spatial effect between the regions, which is not perfect. There are quite a lot of study proved that the financial crisis, debt crisis spread between countries and regions have the spatial effect, because the spatial agglomeration of economic activities of enterprise can lead to spatial agglomeration of contagion. So this article using the spatial-probit model and method to study the difference of the contagion of default risk of listed companies between the region and the industries from the perspective of spatial economics and new geographical economics and explore the factors which influencing the risk of default contagion of listed companies. Horizontally, we compare the difference between industries and regions;Vertically, we compare the change of contagion in recent eight years. On the one hand, we use geographical matrix as spatial weight matrix which adjacent area is 1,otherwise is 0 to study the contagion of the default risk between different regions;on the other hand, we use economic matrix as spatial weight matrix which in the same industry is 1, different industries is 0 to study the contagion of the default risk between different industries The empirical results show that the spatial effect of the risk of default contagion between industries is not significant, but the spatial effect between the area is obvious. Mechanical industry results show that the coefficient of the turnover of total capital, EM, CPI is positive, the coefficient of GDP is negative. Finally, this paper provides a better explanation of what factors influence the risk of default contagion and reduces the probability of risk contagion to effectively control the company’s risk, also better promote the development of the company. At the same time, it has a great realistic significance on the commercial banks, investors, capital market regulators to make specific loan policy, select portfolio and standardized the market management.